Sharing The Wins

'18 Acuna Chrm Refrc

With the Winter Meetings on the horizon, let’s take a look at the relative value of the players in the game. In a sport awash with money, old-school fans often have difficulty wrapping their heads around the new levels of salaries and budgetary guidelines. With the average MLB salary now above $4 Million, how do we really know what a player’s contribution is worth? And do these contributions really make a difference in the standings?

 

In other words, what is their contribution to winning games? We’ve discussed WAR (Wins Above Replacement) numerous times in this space and that statistical outcome does impact decisions made by writers voting on awards and General Managers making deals. It has become a mainstream analysis over the last decade and can help clarify and justify some contract amounts. For example, if you believe in the WAR calculations, it confirms that Mookie Betts was the best position player in the AL (10.9 WAR) and Christian Yelich was tops in the NL (7.6 WAR). The fact that they each won the MVP adds to the credibility of the statistic. Cy Young Award winners Blake Snell (7.5 WAR) & Jacob deGrom (10.0 WAR) were also the best in their respective leagues.

 

Most baseball stat-heads believe a player is worth about $6-8M per win to his team and free agent signings give us a window into that formula. So, when you digest the upcoming free agent contracts of Manny Machado (5.7), Bryce Harper (1.2), Patrick Corbin (4.6), Dallas Kuechel (2.6) & Craig Kimbrel (2.1), see how close the formula comes out compared to the real world. You may also decide that the early signings of Eduardo Escobar (3.1) for $7 Million and Kurt Suzuki (2.1) for $5 Million were relative bargains.

 

Each year at this time, we turn to another statistical measure in an attempt to gauge player value. The other stat that is team-result based is WS (Win Shares) as developed by the godfather of modern statistical analysis, Bill James. While trying to describe the formula is impossible (James wrote an entire book on the topic in 2002), it comes down to a system where each game a team wins during the season is meticulously analyzed and the three players most responsible for that win get a “win share”. So, if a team wins 80 games, there will be 240 win shares distributed on the roster. Position players will have a tendency to accumulate higher totals than pitchers, but it’s all about comparisons between players among positions. Only twelve position players had a number of 28 or better in 2018 and it’s difficult to take exception with the results – Mike Trout led the way for the 4th time in 6 seasons with a figure of 39. Both MVP’s are on the list with Betts at 36 and Yelich at 34. The other members of the elite dozen are…

 

> Alex Bregman, 36

> J.D. Martinez, 33

> Francisco Lindor, 30

> Jose Ramirez, 29

> Jed Lowrie, 29

> Manny Machado, 28

> Nolan Arenado, 28

> Mitch Haniger, 28

> Matt Carpenter, 28

 

The highest-rated Starting Pitchers were Snell, Aaron Nola & Max Scherzer all with 22 followed by Kyle Freeland (21) and deGrom, Verlander and Kluber with 20 each.

 

The best Closer was the A’s Blake Treinen with 19 followed by the newest Met, Edwin Diaz with 18.

 

As always, there are some hidden tidbits in the rankings that impact both fantasy and reality baseball…

 

> Rookies of the Year contributed impressively with Shohei Ohtani getting 20 and Ronald Acuna Jr. coming in at 19.

 

> Jose Abreu was below 20 (17) for the first time in his career.

 

> Jose Altuve dropped from 35 in ’17 to 23 in ’18.

 

> Xander Bogaerts has his best season with 27.

 

> Kris Bryant had only 15 after averaging 29 in his first three seasons.

 

> Lorenzo Cain’s free-agent contract paid off with 25.

 

> Derek Dietrich added 16 to the Marlins cause and wasn’t offered a contract for 2019.

 

> Brian Dozier dropped from 26 to 15.

 

> Paul Goldschmidt has averaged 28 over the last six seasons.

 

> Bryce Harper’s 2015 MVP season is the only one on his resume with a number over 23.

 

> Felix Hernandez has had 188 in his career, but only one (1) in 2018.

 

> Eric Hosmer got an 8-year deal and went from 30 to 16.

 

> Joe Mauer finished his career with 306.

 

> Brandon Nimmo had more (22) than Michael Conforto (21).

 

> Joey Votto had 33 in each of the previous three seasons and then posted 22 in 2018.

 

Don’t forget, it’s the season for sharing…All Holidays Matter!

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1953 Topps Baseball Cards – Historic Artistry

'53 Mantle

As a collector and purveyor of vintage baseball cards, it is always a thrill when a collection comes across my desk that includes 1953 Topps cards. The beauty and artistry of this iconic set sets it apart in the history of the hobby.

 

Topps produced their first full set of baseball cards in 1952 and it is the holy grail for collectors of post-WWII cardboard.

 

 

The format was very clean with a bordered photo that included the player’s name with a facsimile autograph and a team logo. Today, the cards are scarce…especially in nice condition.

 

In ’53 however, the company went in a completely different direction by utilizing line drawings of players in full color. Some cards were short-printed (SP) while others were double-printed (DP) and all of them have a name and team panel at the bottom that is easily damaged. Let’s look at some of the Hall of Famers who graced the cards and we’ll use a condition valuation of “EX 5” (on a scale of 1-to-10) to help you determine the current worth. In 1953, of course, you could buy a pack for a nickel and it included six cards and a stick of gum.

 

> #1 Jackie Robinson, Dodgers 2B, $425 – The first card in every 50’s set is difficult to find in decent condition because kids used rubber bands to hold their collection together and the top card was subject to more damage. It’s especially a factor when the card is also of a player of this caliber.

 

 

> #27 Roy Campanella, Dodgers C, $90 – A three-time NL MVP in the 50’s

 

> #37 Eddie Mathews Braves 3B, $75 – 512 Home Runs in his career

 

> #54 Bob Feller Indians P, $70 – Came back after 3+ years in the military to continue his amazing career

 

 

> #76 Pee Wee Reese Dodgers SS, $85 – Another great member of the “Boys of Summer”

 

> #82 Mickey Mantle Yankees OF, $3,250 – Still the most popular player of this golden era, his cards are in great demand

 

> #104 Yogi Berra, Yankees C, $135 – Along with “Campy”, another three time winner of the MVP

 

> #114 Phil Rizzuto, Yankees SS, $80 – Went into the broadcast booth after his playing career and made the call on Roger Maris’ 61st Home Run

 

> #147 Warren Spahn, Braves P, $85 – The most Wins of any left-hander in baseball history (363)

 

> #207 Whitey Ford, Yankees P, $85 – Called the “Chairman of the Board” long before Sinatra

 

 

> #220 Satchel Paige, Browns P, $350 – The greatest hurler in the history of the Negro Leagues

 

> #244 Willie Mays, Giants OF, $1,250 – The “Say Hey” Kid

 

Other Cooperstown inductees in the set include Johnny Mize, Enos Slaughter, Early Wynn, Monte Irvin, George Kell, Hoyt Wilhelm and Ralph Kiner.

 

And, of course, great baseball nicknames like “Toothpick” Sam Jones, Forrest “Smoky” Burgess, Louis “Bobo” Newsom, Harry “Peanuts” Lowrey, Ewell “The Whip” Blackwell, Emory “Bubba” Church, Willie “Puddin’ Head” Jones, Virgil “Fire” Trucks, Sebastian “Sibby” Sisti, Wilmer “Vinegar Bend” Mizell, Omar “Turk” Lown, Albert “Rube” Walker, Harry “Suitcase” Simpson, Paul “Dizzy” Trout, Eldon “Rip” Repulski and many others

 

Each card is a beautiful piece of baseball history.

 

Hanging Around The Hot Stove

Williams Shift

Many baseball fans from the “Baby Boomer” generation haven’t really bought into the immense change in how statistics are viewed. They still look at the game with their eyes and are only concerned with the numbers on the back of the baseball card. For those of us more immersed in the details of the game, the man who guided us through the wilderness is Bill James. Starting in the late 70’s, he published an annual “Baseball Abstract” that began the task of analyzing data in new and different ways. By 1985, he wrote the first “Historical Baseball Abstract” and that 700+ page volume still sits on the bookshelf in my office.

 

For baseball fans in general and Fantasy Baseball players who can’t wait for the upcoming season, Bill also helps us get through the winter while we’re longing for box scores. Each November, The Bill James Handbook gives us a review of the season, lifetime stats of every major league player and numerous articles and lists to make the “hot stove” season tolerable. The 2019 version is available now and at 622 pages, offers just about something for everyone. The Old Duck has an annual exercise, where I take my initial cursory glance at the book and begin discovering information that surprises and enlightens me.

 

So, here are some random observations from my first time through the pages…

 

> In golf and tennis, fans can easily find current rankings on each player. The systems are set up so that the rankings move up and down based on performance and are not just for the current season. James has developed a similar idea for ranking starting pitchers. The current top five are Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. All but deGrom were in the top five when the 2018 began and he replaced Clayton Kershaw, who is now 6th. Some of the biggest drops since a year ago were Jake Arrieta (from 9th to 33rd), Madison Bumgarner (#11 to #46) and Gio Gonzalez (#14 to #47). On the positive side, Trevor Bauer (26th to 8th), Aaron Nola (59th to 10th), Blake Snell (84th to 13th) and Patrick Corbin (66th to 15th) were the shining stars.

 

> Fielding metrics are relatively new and not yet accepted by fans or even by many statisticians. The handbook’s “Defensive Runs Saved” chart does help us verify what we think we’re told by our eyes. Mookie Beets ramped up his MVP credentials by leading all RF with 20-runs saved. The only other OF with a mark of 20 was Brewers CF Lorenzo Cain. The leader among LF was Alex Gordon of the Royals with 18. If you’re wondering if Harrison Bader will be in the starting OF of the 2019 Cardinals, think about this – he had 8-runs saved playing RF and another 11 playing CF. The 1B & 2B races were very close with Matt Olson (14) edging out Branson Belt (13) while Kolten Wong (19) barely topped DJ LeMahieu (18). 3B was dominated by the A’s Matt Chapman, who with 29-runs saved, had more twice the total of the runner-up. Perennial Gold Glover Andrelton Simmons was great at SS once again (21), but Nick Ahmed of the D’Backs also had the same number. Jeff Mathis has been in the big leagues for 14 seasons with a lifetime BA of .198. How does that happen? He led all Catchers with 17-runs saved. For all the cynical fans out there, we can’t leave out the worst fielders in the game and how many runs they cost their teams…

 

1B) Ryon Healy & Josh Bell -9 each

2B) Daniel Murphy (for the 2nd straight year) -18

3B) Miguel Andujar -29

SS) Xander Bogaerts -19

LF) Rhys Hoskins -24

CF) Charlie Blackmon -28

RF) Nick Castellanos -19 (was the worst at 3B last year)

C) Nick Hundley -19

 

> A consistently debated topic among fans and media is the dramatic increase in defense shifts. In 2014, shifts were utilized over 13,000 times, in 2015 the number increased to over 17,000 and in 2016, it grew tremendously (+58%) to over 28,000. The 2017 numbers seem to show that the optimum advantage has been reached, as the figure dropped slightly to 26,700. But 2018 put every number in the rear-view mirror with over 34,600 (a 30% increase). To the naysayer, the question becomes, would teams be shifting if it didn’t work? According to the “Runs Saved” statistic, shifting saved 196 runs in 2014, 267 runs in 2015, 359 in 2016 and 346 in 2017. Then in 2018, it increased to 592! The shift lowered the Batting Average of shift candidates by 23 points. The batting average for all of major league baseball was .248.

 

> In the past, players were judged as good baserunners if they swiped a lot of bases. Not only were their other baserunning skills not considered, even their caught stealing stats were ignored. However, as Tom Boswell pointed out over 20 years ago, a caught stealing is equivalent to two outs because it not only removes a baserunner, it also causes an out. Now we have information that tells us how often a player goes from 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home plate on a single. The handbook grades baserunning on the net amount of bases a player gains in a given season. The top five were Jose Ramirez (+48), Lorenzo Cain (+40), Mookie Betts (+37), Mike Trout (+34) & Brett Gardner (+33). The two worst? Yangervis Solarte (-34) & Wilson Ramos (-32).

 

> Were there any successful major league pitchers who threw their fastball over 90% of the time? The “Pitchers’ Repertoires” section will answer that question by telling you that three relievers fit the bill…Kenley Jansen, Zach Britton & James Pazos.

 

That’s just a taste of the information in this year’s edition and we haven’t even looked at the individual player stats. No wonder that “stathead” is now an accepted baseball term.

 

Getting My Dux In A Row

xfllogo

In 30+ years of playing auction-style Fantasy Baseball, winning over 30 championships can make you feel like an “expert”. The real test, however, is when you compete in a league full of experts. That has been a yearly challenge for The Old Duck and it presented itself once again as the 15 owners in the Xperts Fantasy League (XFL) gathered in Phoenix last week for their 17th annual draft.

 

As a quick refresher, the XFL is the only experts keeper league within the fantasy industry and many of the owner’s names are familiar to those who have viewed the landscape of fantasy sports over the years. These brilliant guys produce websites, magazines, newsletters and blogs that help guide you in becoming a better player in your league. The league is a 5 X 5 format (with on-base percentage replacing batting average), a 23-player live auction draft in early November with a $260 budget and a supplemental snake draft in late March to round out the 40-man rosters (23 players are active each week during the season). Donald’s Dux (my squad) has captured four championships and holds the top overall performance record encompassing all 16 seasons of the league.

 

After finishing 1st, 1st, 2nd & 2nd from 2011-14, the Dux  struggled with 7th place finishes in 2015-16 and then a more respectable 5th place spot last year. The 2018 season, however, was a disaster, especially in the 2nd half and the Dux finished 11th. Starting pitching was the culprit as injuries to Jeff Samardzija, Michael Wacha & Steven Matz derailed the Wins & ERA categories. Of course, less than stellar seasons from position players like Odubal Herrera, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Scoop, Domingo Santana & Eduardo Nunez didn’t help either. Even though the squad was in the top five around the All-Star break, strong performances from Anthony Rizzo, Gleybar Torres, Yasiel Puig, Shin-Soo Choo, Didi Gregorius, Patrick Corbin & others couldn’t make up for the negatives.

 

So, as we approached the November Draft for the 2019 season, the strategy wasn’t easily defined. My Fantasy DNA doesn’t allow for giving up early to approach a rebuild, but reality can’t be ignored.

 

Here’s the keeper list for the Dux that was frozen on October 19th –

 

C – Willson Contreras $10

C –

1B – Jose Abreu $16

3B –

1/3 –

2B – Yoan Moncada $7

SS – Willy Adames $4

2/S – Gleybar Torres $4

OF – Yasiel Puig $19

OF –

OF –

OF –

OF –

U –

P – Patrick Corbin $8

P – Vincent Velasquez $6

P – Brad Hand $11

P –

P –

P –

P –

P –

P –

P –

Farm – Royce Lewis

Farm – Michael Baez

 

The six hitters had a salary total of $60, while the three pitchers equaled $25 leaving $175 to buy 14 players at the draft table. The basic allocation would be $109 for the eight hitters and $66 for the six pitchers. So, the draft strategy was as follows…

 

> In the days before the Draft, reality indicated that this keeper list wasn’t strong enough to assume the team could contend, despite the available dollars. Five other teams had similar budgets and the talent pool was shallow, so too much money would be chasing limited assets.

 

> The logical approach seemed to be 1) overpay for two star players who could be used as trade-chips in June if the team wasn’t competitive and 2) concentrate on filling other roster spots with younger players who might have reasonable enough salaries to still be keepers for 2020.

 

> Find a solid 3B for $20 or less, a 2nd Catcher for less than $10, a 1/3 for $10 and four OF’s for a combined budget of about $70.

 

> On the pitching side, allocate $40 for four starting pitchers, $25 for two additional Closers (also possible trade assets) and one end-gamer for the final pitching spot.

 

> My advice to players has always been to not “chase” any particular player. Find a group of players that fit your need and focus on getting one of them. This was the biggest challenge because so many of MLB’s star players were already rostered.

 

> The four best hitters in the player pool were J.D. Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Charlie Blackmon & Anthony Rizzo. On the pitching side, the four were Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, David Price & Kyle Hendricks. The initial goal was to get one hitter and one pitcher from this group.

 

Before reviewing the results of the draft, there’s one other important league rule for readers to understand. Even though the word “list” is being used in this discussion, the really unique aspect of the XFL is that team owners can bring nothing to the table…no lists, no projections, no research, no draft software, no laptops, no tablets and no smart phones. When you sit at the table, major league depth charts are handed out with the names of keepers crossed off and that is your only reference material during the auction. Even the depth charts are as neutral as possible with players listed by position and alphabetically. You don’t get any help as the typical MLB team could have 12 relief pitchers on the sheet and you need to know which one might get (or be next in line for) Saves.

 

The actual approach at the draft table needed to be somewhat aggressive as the eight “stars” would probably come out early. And, of course, never forget the words of a world-class poker player who once told me, “If you sit down at the table and don’t spot the pigeon, it just might be you”.

 

One of the keys in a keeper league environment is to  determine what the inflation factor might be on player salaries. You can do the math prior to the Draft, but until you actually hear the bids, you can’t really be sure. Every Fantasy league is basing their valuations on projections but when you’re bidding in November, knowing what a player actually “earned” the previous season can give some insight into inflation. For the eight players mentioned, all expect Strasburg had a season uninterrupted by injury, so their 2018 stats were a reasonable baseline.

 

The first player nominated would tell us much of what we wanted to know. Last November, Goldschmidt went for $65 at the table and ended up earning $29 in our statistical format. This time, he was bought for $45, which still represented a 50% inflation factor. That percentage was now in the front of my brain for the remainder of the Draft.

 

Martinez came out soon after and he had earned $40 for his spectacular ’18 season. The Dux bid aggressively and rostered him for $56…a 40% inflation factor. Last November, he was $55.

 

Blackmon ended up costing $45 (73% inflation) and Rizzo $42 (90% inflation).

 

Greinke was my next target and I stayed in until $30, finally letting him go to another team at $31. You can never beat yourself up at these moments because there’s no guarantee that $32 would have been enough. The inflation factor on the $31 bid was 48%. Soon after, the Dux paid $30 for Strasburg…taking a reasonable chance on his health due to his potential. Eventually, Price went for $23 (53% inflation) and Hendricks for $17 (21% inflation).

 

The targeted 3B were Mike Moustakas, Eduardo Escobar & Wil Myers. We opted for Myers due to the SB potential and got him for the $20 allocated in that spot.

 

Next was a Closer and Sean Doolittle was the choice for $15. His injury during the season was not arm-related and the peripheral stats were off the charts.

 

Wellington Castillo for $9 was probably the worst pick of the day, but in a league with 30 Catchers needing to be rostered, it helps to have two with some sort of positive value.

 

Next up was Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers for $6…let’s hope he gets a rotation spot ahead of Freddy Peralta and/or Corbin Burnes.

 

Arodys Vizcaino filled the 3rd third Closer spot at $10 and then we still ended up with Eduardo Escobar at 1/3 for $10.

 

At this point, it was almost “end-game” territory but too many teams still had too many dollars, so targeting any player in particular was a fool’s game. The Dux heard “crickets” on their next bid, as we added Giants OF Steven Duggar for $1. If the season started today, he might just be the starting CF and lead-off hitter. If not, the position flexibility of the roster can put him in the Utility spot, where he is easily replaced by someone in the March Draft.

 

Then $4 for Steven Matz… he looked healthy at the end of the season and his 5-11 record was not aligned with the numbers. Next up was D’Backs OF Steven Souza for $9…injured most of ’18, he had 30 HR’s & 16 SB’s in 2017.

 

Kole Calhoun was our last OF at $1, Sandy Alcantara our final pitcher for $1 and then Tigers 3B Jeimer Canderlario in the Utility spot for our last $3.

 

The Dux spent $169 on offense (65% of budget) and $91 on pitching (35% of budget), which were the exact target numbers. As for the other aspect of money management, it looked like this…

 

> C – $8 allocation, $9 actual

> 3B – $20 allocation, $20 actual

> 1/3 – $10 allocation, $10 actual

> OF $69 allocation (4), $67 actual

> U – $2 allocation, $3 actual

> SP – $42 allocation (4), $41 actual

> RP – $24 allocation (2), $25 actual

 

Just to keep your mind percolating during the off-season, here are some random thoughts from the Draft…

 

> November is much too early to evaluate injured pitchers…Jimmy Nelson went for $1, as did Danny Salazar, Michael Pineda, Sean Manaea & Garrett Richards.

 

> Reputations don’t matter as Yu Darvish went for $9, Jay Bruce for $2, Jake Arrieta for $6 & Brandon Belt for $3…and Felix Hernandez wasn’t taken.

 

> Never ask the question, “why did someone pay $25 for Jesse Winker” without clearly understanding that someone else bid $24

 

> Other big contract players included Justin Upton for $34, David Dahl for $28 & Justin Turner for $27

 

> $1 players the Dux wouldn’t mind having included Chris Ianetta, Jordan Hicks, Yonder Alonso, Zach Britton, Marcus Semien & C.J. Cron

 

> And, of course, the annual exercise of listing players who were not even drafted…Nick Ahmed, Dansby Swanson, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, Matt Harvey, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Starlin Castro, Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Jeffress, Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, J.P. Crawford, Josh Harrison, Kolten Wong, Jedd Gyorko, Dexter Fowler, Joe Panik, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Ian Kinsler, Jason Kipnis, Josh Reddick, Alex Gordon, Albert Pujols (again), Zack Cozart, Brett Gardner & Kevin Pillar.

 

You can review additional league information at fantasyxperts.com

 

 

Updating The Bucket List

Little League 2018

For those of you under the age of 50, the name George Plimpton might not be that familiar. If, however, you were coming of age in the 60’s, the late author and editor was consistently in the limelight of pop culture and sports. Long before the idea of “Fantasy” sports, his books and articles were unique in that he invented a genre known as “participatory journalism”. He used his connections and celebrity to take part as an amateur in professional sporting and entertainment events and then shared the experience with his readers in books and magazines. For old-school Rotisserie Baseball players, we even have him to thank for “The Curious Case of Sidd Finch” written for Sports Illustrated in 1985.

 

A few years ago, PBS aired a wonderful documentary on his life and it brought back so many memorable moments from his career. In the final segment, however, his son read a list of items from Plimpton’s “Bucket List” including one about learning to throw a knuckleball. That exercise struck me as a little strange because if there was ever someone who spent their life living out a “Bucket List”, it was George Plimpton. After all, he got in the boxing ring with Light-Heavyweight Champion Archie Moore, he pitched to Willie Mays at the All-Star Game, he played Quarterback in training camp for the Detroit Lions (creating the best-selling book “Paper Lion”), he was in goal for the Boston Bruins in an exhibition game against the Flyers (stopping Reggie Leach on a penalty shot) and suited up for the Boston Celtics. As if sports weren’t enough to fill his life, he was also close friends with most of the great writers of the era and part of the inner circle of the Kennedy family. The one participatory event in his life that he never chronicled in print was the fact that he pried the gun from the hand of Sirhan Sirhan after Robert Kennedy was shot.

 

At a certain point in your life, creating a “Bucket List” will be a natural phenomenon. And, if you’re a sports fan, many of the items will be self-explanatory. “Visit Augusta in Early April” might not mean much to some people, but it’s a clear goal to many. With all that being said, unless you’re Morgan Freeman and end up sharing a hospital room with multi-millionaire Jack Nicholson, you probably won’t put a check-mark next to a significant number of items on your list. In thinking about Plimpton’s list, maybe a better exercise is to review how many wonderful moments we’ve experienced up to now and not dwell so much on the ones not yet achieved. So, if you’ll indulge me, I’d like to challenge each of you to make up a list of the items that already have that check-mark. And, to keep it light, utilize sports as your source for the project.

 

Being as I have the floor, the Old Duck will go first. Let’s hope yours is even better.

 

> Watching Ted Williams hit a historic home run at Fenway Park ( #400 July 1956). Crossing home plate, he spit in the direction of the press box.

 

> Playing Pebble Beach on a beautiful Spring day with my best friend (May 2006).

 

> Bowling a perfect 300 game (1964, 1965, 1972 & 1995).

 

> Receiving a Varsity letter in High School sports (Wheelchair Basketball, 1962). I was on crutches for a year due to hip surgery and attended a school for the physically handicapped.

 

> Traveling to Toronto and visiting the Hockey Hall of Fame (1994).

 

> Experience being “mooned” by rowdy fans at Yankee Stadium (1988). And I wasn’t even wearing a Red Sox cap.

 

> Seeing a rookie named Bill Russell change the face of the NBA when he scored only two points but completely dominated the Knicks at Boston Garden in a 114-78 Celtic victory (January 1957).

 

> Collecting over 200 autographed Sports Illustrated covers and getting to meet some of the greatest athletes in the world during the process. Ernie Banks was the nicest and Dave Parker was the rudest (1985-2005).

 

> Walking across the Roberto Clemente Bridge on a spectacular Summer night to watch the Pirates play at PNC Park (2006).

 

> Making a Hole-In-One twice (178 yard 7-Wood, June 2006 & 155 yard 4-Iron, August 2017). The first one was with my best friend and the second with my Son.

 

> Traveling to Kansas City and visiting the Negro League Museum (2006).

 

> Being in the crowd at the Forum in Los Angeles on the night Wayne Gretzky scored his 802nd goal to break Gordie Howe’s record (March 1994).

 

> Witnessing George Brett’s 3000th hit at Angel Stadium in Anaheim (September 1992).

 

> Traveling to St. Augustine, Florida and visiting the World Golf Hall of Fame (2008).

 

> Watching Sandy Koufax pitch a shutout at Dodger Stadium (1965).

 

> Attending MLB games at over 25 different ballparks (1959-2014).

 

> Completing a 1956 Topps Baseball Card Set (1990).

 

> Traveling to Cooperstown and visiting the Baseball Hall of Fame (2006).

 

> Doing volunteer work at the Los Angeles Urban League and having the thrill of meeting, and talking with, Ray Charles (1972). I know it’s not sports-related, but c’mon…it was Ray Charles!

 

> Attending the opening game of a World Series (1974).

 

> Meeting Bernie “Boom Boom” Geoffrion and telling him how much I hated the Montreal Canadians when I was a kid growing up in Boston. He smiled and said, “We sure kicked their ass, didn’t we?” (1986)

 

> Spending the month of March watching Spring Training games every day (2006-    ).

 

> Traveling to Springfield, Massachusetts and visiting the Basketball Hall of Fame (1998).

 

> Attending a Rose Bowl game (Wisconsin vs. UCLA 1999).

 

> Watching the Rams “Fearsome Foursome” scare the daylights out of QB’s at the L.A Coliseum (1966).

 

> Sitting in a luxury suite at Camden Yards on a night when Cal Ripken Jr. hit a Home Run (1993).

 

> Competing on the same lanes with bowling legends Dick Weber & Earl Anthony (1985).

 

> Going on the court at Staples Center prior to a Lakers game and shooting free-throws to help raise money for charity (2001).

 

> Being a participant in the first-pitch ceremony on the field at Dodger Stadium (2006)…I was the Catcher. It was also “Old-Timers Day” and Maury Wills & Steve Garvey were not impressed with my skills.

 

> Witnessing Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Longden’s last race as he brought home George Royal in a stretch duel at Santa Anita Park in the 1966 San Juan Capistrano Handicap. At age 59, that brought his win total to 6,032.

 

> Capturing a Fantasy Baseball Championship in competition with some of the best experts in the industry (2005, 2009, 2011, 2012). Honestly, just being in a league with these guys would have made the list.

 

> Being in Pauley Pavilion on the UCLA campus the night Lew Alcindor played his first collegiate basketball game (1965).

 

> Looking out over the rocky coastline along the Pacific while playing Poipu Bay Golf Club in Kauai (1996).

 

> Crossing the frozen tundra to tour the Packers Hall of Fame in Green Bay on a perfectly bleak Winter afternoon (1994).

 

> Attending the Olympic Games (1984).

 

> Spring Training road-trips to Arizona with my baseball buddies, four games and eight teams in three days (1980’s & 90’s).

 

> Visiting the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame prior to a game at Great American Ballpark (2006).

 

> Taking in the unforgettable atmosphere of minor league baseball in places like San Antonio, Louisville, Buffalo, Jacksonville & Rancho Cucamonga.

 

> Getting to see both Bob Cousy and Magic Johnson pass the basketball (1958, 1985).

 

> Having lunch at Harry Carey’s restaurant before an afternoon game at Wrigley Field (1991).

 

> Being a speaker on the same convention program with Billy Beane and talking with him about “Moneyball” (2005).

 

> Getting the opportunity to write about baseball and other topics that I love (2012-     ).

 

> Becoming a member of the Dana-Farber Society, which raises money for “The Jimmy Fund”. It is the official charity of the Red Sox and is dedicated to saving the lives of children with cancer (2011).

 

Two new and significant items have been added this year…

 

> Sitting in the stands watching two of my Grandsons play on opening day of the Little League season (February 2018).

 

> Attending Game #5 of the World Series at Dodger Stadium with my Son (October 2018).

 

Reminds me of that great song by Marc Cohn called “Saving The Best For Last”. Hope your bucket list includes being somewhere you love with a person you love.

 

 

 

The Clutch Chronicles – 2018

Martinez RD

The Urban Dictionary defines Clutch as, “To perform under pressure”. For decades, baseball pundits and fans have extolled the virtues of players who supposedly had this trait. Their evidence, however, was only visual and anecdotal. Back in the 1970’s, most people considered Tony Perez of the “Big Red Machine” one of baseball’s best clutch hitters. After all, he had over 100 RBI’s in six seasons between 1967 & 1975. In fact, some would argue that his election to the Hall of Fame was based on this reputation.

 

Now that baseball is in the age of statistical analysis, our old observations may be called into question. Even a math-challenged fan understands that you can’t get a plethora of RBI’s without baserunners. And, boy, did those Reds teams have baserunners!

 

Statistics on RBI Percentage (RBI-HR/Runners On) now go back to 1974, so let’s see how our legendary clutch hitter fared in a season where he was an All-Star. Perez had 101 RBI’s, 28 HR’s & 489 runners on base for a RBI percentage of 14.93%. That didn’t even crack the top 50 for the major leagues in ’74! He finished behind household names such as Reggie Smith, Richie Zisk, Jimmy Wynn, Cesar Cedeno & Ted Simmons. The leaders were Jeff Burroughs at 21.18% and Sal Bando at 21.15%.

 

Our Hall-of-Famer improved considerably in 1975 as he accumulated 109 RBI’s with 20 HR’s and 489 runners on base (again). His percentage improved to 18.20% and he just snuck into the top ten for that season. The only hitters at 20% or higher were Willie Stargell at 20.48% and Thurman Munson at 20.00%.

 

As a fan, you certainly have an opinion on today’s clutch hitters but do the stats back you up? In 2018, there were 17 hitters who exceeded the 18.20% that Perez posted in ’75. We’ll only include players who had at least 200 baserunners during the season to eliminate the “small sample size” outliers.  These are “Quacker’s Clutch All-Stars” and we’ll see how well their performance aligns with their reputation.

 

1) J.D. Martinez, Red Sox OF, 19.82% – Helped the BoSox to 100+ Wins and was a free agent actually worth his contract.

 

2) Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox SS, 19.75% – Came all the way back from an injury-plagued 2017.

 

3) Gregory Polanco, Pirates OF, 19.73%- His OPS in ’17 was .695…in ’18, it was .839.

 

4 Yulieski Gurriel, Astros 1B, 19.30% – An unheralded contributor to Houston’s success, he provided 85 RBI’s.

 

5) Christian Yelich, Brewers OF, 19.16%- Another reason he’s a MVP favorite.

 

6) Jed Lowrie, Athletics 2B, 19.10% – Made his first All-Star team at age 34.

 

7) Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B, 18.97%- Slowed down by some injuries but he’s still a force in the line-up.

 

8) Freddie Freeman, Braves 1B, 18.88%- No surprise here, he’s the glue and veteran presence on a young Atlanta team.

 

9) Matt Kemp, Dodgers OF, 18.82%- Wasn’t even supposed to make the opening day roster but provided solid stats.

 

 

10 Gerardo Parra, Rockies OF, 18.80% – Critics wanted to see more of Dahl & McMahon but he produced…a free agent in 2019.

 

11) Wilson Ramos, Phillies C, 18.71%- Got a late start but did a good job of building future value as a 2019 fee agent.

 

12) Robinson Cano, Mariners 2B, 18.60%- “Cheaters never prosper” isn’t always true.

 

13) David Freese, Dodgers CI, 18.43%- If you recall, he has World Series experience.

 

14) Edwin Encarnacion, Indians DH, 18.38% – Still a professional hitter at age 35.

 

15) Robinson Chirinos, Rangers C, 18.36% – The .222 BA is misleading, as he posted a .338 OBP with 18 HR’s.

 

16) Mitch Garver, Twins C, 18.27% – A .749 OPS in over 300 AB’s is a plus at a defensive position.

 

17) David Peralta, D’Backs OF, 18.24% – A break-out year at Age 30…hit 30 HR’s.

 

Just outside the top 17 was Shohei Ohtani with a clutch number of 18.06…yes, he’s for real.

 

For everyday players, JaCoby Jones was the worst in baseball at 8.21%. Others under 10% included Adam Engel, Carlos Gomez, Michael Taylor, Hernan Perez, Billy Hamilton, Mike Zunino, Lorenzo Cain & Mike Kingery.

 

Hope all your fantasy players came through in the clutch. For more information on RBI Percentage, go to baseballmusings.com.

 

Ugly & Historic – 1955 Bowman Baseball Cards

 

Morgan 9

Those of you under the age of 60 can’t possibly imagine the impact that Television had on America in the 1950’s. It changed our personal habits as well as the way business advertised their products, the movie industry (3D is nothing new) and how we viewed the world.

 

The Bowman Gum Company first issued baseball cards in 1948 and was the dominant player in the marketplace for a number of years, producing some of the most beautiful collectibles ever conceived. However, once Topps entered the fray in 1952, Bowman found the competitive environment changing dramatically. In the early 50’s, the two companies battled over player rights and court battles occurred between the two companies on a regular basis. In 1955, Bowman decided to capitalize on the cultural craze and issued their 320-card set with each player pictured on the screen of a color TV set. Looking back today, it was probably the death knell of the company. Compared to the products Bowman had issued in the past like the iconic 1953 “Color’ set, this was the ugly step-sister. While some collectors think the cards are attractive in a campy sort of way, others feel that the word “ugly” doesn’t even begin to describe the look. Whether you believe the cards didn’t market well due to the appearance or that Bowman just couldn’t survive the competition, the result was that Topps bought out the company in January of 1956 and the “TV” cards were their last product.

 

Of course, 50+ years later, the look doesn’t matter as much as the legendary players in the set and the scarcity of finding the cards in nice condition. A complete set of ’55 Bowman cards in near mint (NM 7) condition would be worth over $13,000 today. There are 24 Hall of Famers in this issue and, as with any baseball card set, every card has a unique story to tell. Let’s reminisce about some of those stories.

 

> #1 Hoyt Wilhelm, Giants P ($100) – This master of the knuckleball pitched in 1,070 games

 

> #4 Eddie Waitkus, Orioles 1B ($25) – The back of his card tells the story of how this obscure player was shot in the chest by a deranged female fan in June of 1949. He amazingly recovered well enough to play every game at 1B for the pennant-winning Phillies in 1950. In 1952, author Bernard Malamud fictionalized the story in his novel, “The Natural”…you may have seen the movie version with Robert Redford

 

> #10 Phil Rizzuto, Yankees SS ($90) – The “Scooter” was ending his career at age 37 and had hit only .195 in ’54

 

> #22 Roy Campanella, Dodgers C ($125) – “Campy” would earn his 3rd NL MVP award in ’55

 

> #23 Al Kaline, Tigers OF ($115) – The legendary Bengal was just beginning his HOF career

 

> #33 Nellie Fox, White Sox 2B ($75) – One of the most consistent players of the era, he was an All-Star selection every year from 1951-1961

 

> #40 Vic Wertz, Indians 1B ($25) – The player who will always be remembered for hitting the ball when Willie Mays made “The Catch” in the ’54 World Series

 

> #59 Whitey Ford, Yankees P ($125) – Went 18-7 in ’55 with a 2.63 ERA and 18 complete games

 

 

 

> #65 Don Zimmer, Dodgers SS ($65) – This is the rookie card of one of the most legendary baseball characters in the game

 

> #89 Lou Boudreau, Athletics Manager ($55) – With all the current managers employing defensive adjustments, we’re reminded that as a Player-Manager in the 40’s, he invented the infield “Shift” against Ted Williams

 

> #97 Johnny Podres, Dodgers P ($60) – The Worlds Series hero of ’55 who pitched a shutout in Game 7 versus the Yankees to give Brooklyn their first title

 

> #102 Bobby Thomson, Braves OF ($35) – Hit the “Shot Heard Round The World” for the Giants in the 1951 Playoff against the Dodgers

 

> #103 Eddie Mathews, Braves 3B ($100) – This Hall of Famer had just recently been the cover boy for the first issue of Sports Illustrated Magazine

 

> #134 Bob Feller, Indians P ($100) – Most modern baseball fans don’t realize that “Rapid Robert” lost four years to military service in the prime of his career and still won 266 games

 

> #168 Yogi Berra, Yankees C ($140) – Won back-to-back AL MVP awards in ’54 & ’55 and was just learning to take the fork in the road

 

> #179 Hank Aaron, Braves OF ($350) – Hit 13 HR’s in his rookie year of ’54 and would more than double that in ’55 on his way to 755

 

> #184 Willie Mays, Giants OF ($350) – The “Say Hey Kid” was coming off his MVP season in ’54 when he put up 41 HR’s, 110 RBI’s and a .345 BA

 

> #202 Mickey Mantle, Yankees OF ($1,400) – Already a three-time All-Star, he would post his first of eight campaigns with a 1000+ OPS in ’55

 

> #242 Ernie Banks, Cubs SS ($450) – After a rookie season of 19 HR’s in ’54, “Mr. Cub” would hit 44 dingers in ’55 and establish himself as one of the greats of the era

 

> #303 Jocko Conlon, Umpire ($110) – Interestingly, Bowman included umpires in the set and he was one of four to make the Hall of Fame – the others were Al Barlick, Nestor Chylak & Cal Hubbard

 

> Many other outstanding players had their rookie cards in this set including Elston Howard ($95) and Charlie Neal ($80)

 

> Two of the greatest players in the history of the game are not in this set. Ted Williams signed an exclusive contract with Topps in ’54 and Stan Musial’s agreement with Bowman had expired and he didn’t sign with Topps until ’58

 

At this year’s National Sports Collectors Convention, the 1955 Bowman set was a hot topic of conversation. A dealer had acquired an unopened 20-card cello pack and sold spots to collectors who were hoping to get one of the HOF players on a card in “never been touched” condition. As the pack was opened and the cards slowly revealed one-by-one, some gems emerged including Junior Gilliam and Ernie Banks. Then, the 19th card was shown and the crowd roared with excitement. It was indeed the Mickey Mantle card in beautiful condition. The card was immediately taken to the booth of card-grading company PSA and they verified that it was in “MINT 9” condition…an unheard of find. According to people at the show, the new owner was offered as much as $50,000 for the card!

 

A friend of mine participated in the drawing and received a Yankee card that wasn’t Mantle. Card #100 is Pitcher Tom Morgan and it too was graded out as a “MINT 9”. With this type of card, no “book” value is valid. There have only been two other 9’s ever found and neither has been on the market in recent memory. Wonder what it will bring?