Charming The Snake Once A Year

If you’re even an occasional reader of this column, you know that the Old Duck is a 30+ year veteran of Rotisserie Style Auction Keeper Leagues. With over 25 championships in about 70 Drafts, it is what I relish and look forward to each year. However, once a year, the dreaded Snake Draft enters my life for one very good reason. The young man who hosts the league (on ESPN.com) is like a son to me and if he asked me to join a Camel Race Fantasy League hosted by Al Jazeera, I’d probably say yes.

 

Even though I know a beautiful girl who once had a pet Boa Constrictor named “Julius Squeezer”, I hate snakes…both in person and of the Fantasy variety. To me, having 10 or 15 or 20 players go off the board without the opportunity to bid, just penalizes me for doing solid research. And, if one of the Roto combatants forgets to show up on-line, you can bet the “auto-draft” spot will be right in front of me.

 

This time of year, if you follow Fantasy Baseball at all, it is impossible to avoid Snake Draft advice. It comes at you from everywhere…newspapers, websites, magazines, Satellite Radio and friends. The number of strategies are mind-boggling and include…

 

> Memorizing the average draft position (ADP) of every player in the universe.

 

> The “Don’t take Pitchers early” philosophy.

 

> The “Take Clayton Kershaw now” philosophy.

 

> The “Don’t take Closers until later” philosophy.

 

> Prioritizing position scarcity

 

> Getting 50 HR’s & 50 SB’s from your first two picks (50/50 Plan).

 

> Getting 75 HR’s & 75 SB’s from your first three picks (75/75 Plan).

 

> Picking two stud starting pitchers early, also known as the “Dual Aces” plan.

 

> Drafting players for their future instead of their past, also known as the “Upside” plan.

 

In order to avoid having my brain explode, I’ve used none of those strategies and still managed a championship and two 2nd place finishes in the short history of the league. In 2015, the Ducks 9th place finish was assured early when we chose Ian Desmond in Round 2 (choked in his walk year), George Springer in Round 3 (injured) and James Shields in Round 4 (gave up HR’s in Petco?). Then there were the injuries to Yadier Molina & Josh Harrison…well, you get the idea.

 

Part of my occasional past success is from a fairly good knowledge of the player pool, as I’m boning up for NL & AL only Drafts that take place in late March and early April. Logically, however, it seems that the overall approach of the last 30 years still works and it is a mind-set of “balance”. So, while the Long Island Ducks (we all incorporate the name of a minor league team) do have a tendency to wait on pitching, it is more about balancing the roster to leave flexibility as the Draft progresses. Ideally, after ten rounds, the roster should include at least one player at each position (C, 1B, 3B, 2B, SS, OF, SP & Closer) along with a 2nd OF & 2nd SP. After that foundation is established, looking for value is the priority. If you’ve already read columns from multiple sources about the players they drafted, this might be a cure for insomnia. With that disclaimer, my hope is that the strategies and player choices will be of value to you in your upcoming draft.

 

 

This is a 15-team mixed league with 22-man rosters (1 Catcher) and three reserve picks. The random order one hour prior to the Draft gave the Ducks the 12th pick, which didn’t seem great at first, but a close analysis of the top 15 players made me feel better. Even though this a Snake Draft, my logic is to use dollar projections as if it were an Auction Draft. What I found is that there were 14 players on my list that projected to be worth $30 or more…so I was guaranteed to acquire one of those guys. As we work our way through the results, you’ll see the ADP (Average Draft Position) for each player as a point of reference. The ADP rankings are as of the date of the Draft (3/13).

 

Fantasy players are always interested in the first round, so here’s how this league shook out…1) Mike Trout…2) Paul Goldschmidt…3) Clayton Kershaw…4) Josh Donaldson…5) Bryce Harper…6) Jose Altuve…7) Andrew McCutchen…8) Giancarlo Stanton…9) Nolan Arenado…10) Anthony Rizzo…11) Manny Machado.

 

At this point, five of my $30+ projected players were still on the board and considering that my team had another pick coming six spots later, there was an outside chance the Ducks might get two of them.

 

Round1, Pick 12 – Dee Gordon (ADP 20)

 

I liked him better than ADP because of the SB category and the middle infield scarcity. There was going to be power available in Round 2 and I had his value at $37

 

Round 2, Pick 19 – Carlos Correa, SS (ADP 8)

Miguel Cabrera was in the queue for this pick, but was taken right in front of me. It was Correa or Mookie Betts in this spot and I opted for the SS.

 

Round 3, Pick 42 – Jose Fernandez (ADP 37)

 

As expected, the SP run started early…Scherzer, Arrieta, Sale & Bumgarner all went in Round 2 while Harvey & G.Cole went ahead of me in Round 3. I had Fernandez rated ahead of three of those guys and couldn’t really wait any longer. deGrom & Keuchel went at the end of this Round.

 

Round 4, Pick 49 – Yoenis Cespedes, OF (ADP 42)

 

Had to have a power hitter in this spot and was looking at J. Upton when he went two spots earlier. Then CarGo was taken, leaving Cespedes for the rest of us.

 

Round 5, Pick 72 – Eric Hosmer, 1B (ADP 76)

 

Nine 1B has been taken by this time and he was far and away the best one left on the board.

 

Round 6, Pick 79 – Zach Britton, RP (ADP 96)

 

By this point, a run on Closers had begun and the Ducks couldn’t wait another 22 picks to make this decision. I had him projected as the 6th best Closer overall.

 

Round 7, Pick 102 – Matt Kemp, OF (ADP 82)

 

I’m not a fan of this player due to his inconsistency and injury history. He’s also a failure in the eyes of Fantasy players because he’s never duplicated that $50 Roto season of 2011. With that being said, if you didn’t know the name of the player and I told you that a 31 year-old OF had averaged 152 Games, 24 HR’s, 95 RBI’s, 10 SB’s and a .276 BA over the last two seasons, you’d probably take him with pick #102.

 

Round 8, Pick 109 – Danny Salazar, SP (ADP 82)

 

The Ducks second SP, he’s just emerging as a potential star.

 

Round 9, Pick 132 – Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF (ADP 242)

 

This looks like a real blunder compared to his ADP, but I have him projected as a $17 player and he qualifies at three positions. People forget that he was an All-Star in 2014 and he plays this year at age 27.

 

Round 10, Pick 139 – A.J. Ramos (ADP 151)

 

Hesitated taking another Closer this early, but the “pickens” were getting slim. With the injury to Capps, he should gather lots of Saves

 

At this point, the original strategy was almost in place…the Ducks had a 1B, 3B, 2B, SS, 2 OF, 2 SP & 2 Closers but no Catcher.

 

Round 11, Pick 162 – J.T. Realmuto, C (ADP 242)

 

Another reach compared to ADP, but I wanted to fill the Catcher spot on the roster. On my sheet, he’s the 7th best Fantasy backstop and could provide double digit HR’s & SB’s. With no position holes on the squad, it was now about value and reading the nuances of a particular draft.

 

Round 12, Pick 169 – Wei-Yin Chen, SP (ADP 200)

 

Not an ace, but should provide decent numbers moving to the NL and a Pitcher’s park

 

Round 13, Pick 192 – Alex Gordon, OF (ADP 192)

 

Isn’t it weird when your pick aligns exactly with the rest of America?

 

Round 14, Pick 199 – Jonathan Schoop (ADP 249)

 

HR potential at middle infield isn’t a bad thing.

 

Round 15, Pick 222 – Carlos Rodon, SP (ADP 169)

 

A little surprising to find him available at this spot. Just touching the surface of his enormous potential, he has #1 stuff.

 

Round 16, Pick 229 – Dexter Fowler, OF (ADP 189)

 

As the lead-off hitter for the Cubs, doesn’t he seem destined to score a “ship load” of Runs?

 

Round 17, Pick 252 – Jason Hammel (ADP 231)

 

A “Rodney Dangerfield” type pitcher because he gets no respect. All people remember is that he didn’t pitch well in the post-season, but he had 172 K’s in 170 IP in ’15.

 

Round 18, Pick 259 – Joe Mauer, 1B  (ADP 282)

 

Probably not a good pick, but would you rather have David Wright or Luis Valbuena instead?

 

Round 19, Pick 282 – Yasmany Tomas (ADP 305)

 

A real crap shoot here, but you have to think the D’Backs financial commitment to him equals a long leash.

 

Round 20, Pick 289 – Robbie Ray, SP (ADP 366)

 

#5 starters aren’t a good idea, but there wasn’t much quality left.

 

Round 21, Pick 312 – Hector Olivera, 3B/OF (ADP 335)

 

Another Cuban with a big contract, the Braves need to see what they have moving toward 2017.

 

Round 22, Pick 319 – Ervin Santana, SP (ADP 266)

 

Pitched effectively in the 2nd half of ’15…just throwing stuff on the wall at this point

 

Round 23, Pick 342 – Francisco Cervelli (ADP 239)

 

The first of 3 reserve spots, this guarantees not having to find a Catcher on the free agent list in case of injury.

 

Round 24, Pick 349 – Jerad Eickhoff, SP (ADP 311)

 

Will be a #4 or #5 starter on a bad team…this is definitely an end-game selection for depth

 

Round 25, Pick 372 – Max Kepler, OF (ADP 440)

 

Probably won’t make the opening day roster, so he might be the first player cut. (Note – two days after writing this, I replaced him with Alex Colome, who might get some Saves in Tampa Bay due to Boxberger’s injury)

 

At the conclusion of the draft, you can click on a link that shows predicted standings based on ESPN projections. The Ducks are shown in 14th place with 63 points. Did I mention that I hate Snake Drafts? So, is there a light at the end of the tunnel or is it a locomotive? My dollar projections say that the 22 active players have a value of $295 in a theoretical $260 league…that doesn’t seem like a 14th place team. When the stats are run for the 22 Ducks and compared to last year’s standings in the same league, it seems more like 95-100 points rather than 63. Who is correct? As always, only time will tell.

 

 

The really good news is that I don’t have to do this for another year. Best of luck in your Draft.

 

Donald Duck Snake

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You Just Might Be A Fantasy Baseball Player

As Hedley Lamarr (or maybe Chase Headley) once said, “My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.” So, with Spring Training upon us, and with apologies to Jeff Foxworthy –

 

> If the sign in the supermarket said “Rotisserie Chicken” and it caused you to not spend that extra dollar on groceries, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Justin Bour & Adam Lind combined for 43 Home Runs in 2015 and they were all off right-handed pitchers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Marc Rzepczynski’s nickname is “Scrabble”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your elbow was fine but you decided to have Tommy John Surgery to see how long the rehab takes, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the fact that only Sandy Koufax could help your pitching stats causes you to always use 32-second intervals cooking food in the microwave, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your neighbor brags about his 4×4 and you reply by saying you prefer 5×5, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re acquainted with “Lenny The Legend”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Danny Santana, Domingo Santana, Ervin Santana & Johan Santana, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Ahchoo was a man in tights and Shin-Soo Choo is a man in stirrups, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think about wine each time Joey Gallo comes to the plate, you just might be a Baby Boomer Fantasy player.

 

> If you know it’s d’Arnaud and not D’Arnaud, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve tried to park in the space between Matt Harvey’s Masarati and Yoenis Cespedes’ Lamborghini, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Cam Bedrosian’s Father was once the closer on your team, you just might be a veteran Fantasy player.

 

> If Aaron Sanchez announcing in January that he’d gained 25 pounds of muscle during the off-season made you feel better about gaining 25 pounds of fat during the December holidays, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re walking through the woods when someone yells “Snake” and you yell back “I prefer Auction”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you take your gun to the shooting range hoping to meet Aroldis Chapman, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you told your fiancé that you’re willing to marry her but that you want an opt-out after two years, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone refers to a girl as a “Keeper” and you ask if she qualifies at more than one position, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Ian Desmond’s agent reserved a rental car for you and it turned out to be a Yugo, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Antonio Bastardo’s nickname should be “Inglourious”, you just might a Tarantino-style Fantasy player.

 

> If the team names “Okrent Fenokees”, “Sklar Gazers”, “Cary Nations” & “Pollet Burros” are familiar to you, you just might be a long-time Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re philosophical about the playing time for Socrates Brito, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the best thing about the Super Bowl is that it’s the last Football game of the season, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re secure in the fact that if Billy Butler was in a race with a pregnant woman, he’d finish 3rd, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re sure that Buddy Carlyle isn’t the name of a Las Vegas lounge singer, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the whereabouts of Kyle Crick, Kyle Elfrink, Kyle Blanks, Kyle Gibson and Kyle Kendrick, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever used the word “Eh” in a conversation with Tim McLeod, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you watch a movie that stars Ben Kingsley and you’re motivated to check Trace Wood’s Long Gandhi website, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the Mayo Clinic is where Jonathan spends the off-season looking at minor-league video, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think “Black Magic Woman” is only a song by the wrong Carlos Santana, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the Will Smith you’re watching could get an Oscar nomination, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your podiatrist diagnoses you with a callous and it causes you to wonder if Jim has finished the top 100 prospect list yet, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve signed a petition to have Bill James’ countenance added to Mt. Rushmore, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you went to farmersonly.com to look for a scouting report on Buck Farmer, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the term “Pleskoff Prospect” is meaningful to you, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you realize that Wily Peralta’s name is not pronounced the same as Wile E. Coyote’s name, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you see graffiti that says “Jesus Is The Answer” and you wonder if the question is, “Who Is Matty & Felipe’s Brother?”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Schoop is pronounced “Scope”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re hoping to play the part of Larry Schechter in the movie version of his book, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you clearly know that Lazarito is not a villain in the next Marvel super-hero movie, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that Wilin, Welington, Dioner and Yasmani are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re secure in the fact that Vinnie Pestano never worked at the “Bada Bing”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the song “Ventura Highway” makes you wonder if Yordano is really an ace, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve applied for one of the new Visas to Cuba, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are secure in the fact that Lord Zola is not a character created by J.R.R. Tolkien, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your girlfriend’s name is Betty Jo but you’ve started calling her Melvin, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your employer uses a company called ADP to process payroll and your paycheck causes you to wonder if you can get a quality Closer in Round 7, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are aware that both Mookie Betts and John Burkett have bowled perfect 300 games, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are really careful not to use the same fitness center as Jenrry Mejia, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Joe is “Mauer” and Brandon is “Maurer”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Kevin Quackenbush should pitch for the Long Island Ducks, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If none of your friends would even consider tuning in to “Mad Dog” Russo, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Hunter Dozier, Hunter Renfroe, Brian Dozier, Bryan Morris & Hunter Morris, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve spent the last decade having a love/hate relationship with Justin Verlander, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re sure that Pete Seeger, Bob Seger, Kyle Seager & Corey Seager are all talented, you just might be a folk / rock Fantasy player.

 

> if you know that Rougned Odor has a ball-playing Brother who is also named Rougned Odor, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Starlin, Alcides, Adeiny & Asdrubal are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If something tells you that Zack Godley & David Goforth should be pitching for the same team, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know how to spell Oberholtzer, Foltynewicz, Tropeano, Scheppers, Tepesch, Pierzynski, Nieuwenhuis & Szczur, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If a conversation with Jason Collette would be more interesting than one with Toni Collette, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you ponder whether Brad Hand has ever watched video of Rollie Fingers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the kids are watching “Kung Fu Panda” and you think the lead character should lose weight, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that the Cecchini Brothers are not characters in a mob movie, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that the new “Rotoman” Superhero action movie will be in 3-D, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you see the White Sox 3B diving for a ground ball and you hear Howard Cosell yelling “down goes Frazier”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you wonder why the Mexican restaurants in Kansas City don’t serve Moose Tacos, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that meeting Billy Beane would be more exciting than meeting Brad Pitt, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Ryan Wheeler, Tim Wheeler, Zelous Wheeler & Zach Wheeler, you’re definitely a Fantasy player.

 

> If Ron Shandler has replaced Stephen King as your favorite author, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve changed your name from Mike to Giancarlo, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the song “Camptown Ladies” makes you think of Lucas Duda, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone tells you they live on Huston St. and you immediately think about Saves, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that the word “Norichika” means “Ground Ball” in Japanese, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Jarred Cosart, Kaleb Cowart and Zack Cozart, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your wife isn’t concerned about you visiting Asian websites because she knows you’re scouting prospects, you are obviously a Fantasy player.

 

> If you don’t believe that David Price is worth $200+ Million, but you’re sure he’s worth at least $25, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Yovani, Aroldis, Ubaldo, Jhoulys, Odrisamer & Anibal are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you see the movie “Platoon” and immediately start thinking about John Jaso & Mike Morse, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the stats of John Smiley and Drew Smyly, you just might be a long-time Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Dane, Eury, Jorge & Rubby are all named De La Rosa, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know more quotes from Dylan Bundy than from Al Bundy, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the total bill every time you shop at Costco is $260, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the Devo song “Whip It” comes on the radio and you think about a pitcher’s ratio, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Ian Kinsler, Ryan Braun, Scott Feldman, Trevor Rosenthal, Nate Freiman, Ike Davis & Craig Breslow are all on your team, you just might be a Jewish Fantasy player.

 

> If the names Leonys, Taijuan, Kolten, Rymer & Xander are familiar to you, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your only link to opera is that you once saw Alfredo Figaro pitch, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Steve Moyer has better velocity than Jamie Moyer, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the movie “Ender’s Game” is a documentary about Inciarte being traded to the Braves, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Stolmy, Josmil, Mauricio, Yorvit & Koyie are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your Zen Master plays a guitar, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Yuniesky spells it “Betancourt” and Christian spells it “Bethancourt”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are in possession of the MRI on Yu Darvish’s elbow,  you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you absolutely hate it when Managers decide to give their closers some work in non-save situations, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you drive all the way to Las Vegas in March to see Greg Ambrosius, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you bruise your knuckles and immediately think about R.A. Dickey, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Brett Gardner could be related to Steve Gardner, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Brian Kenny is the smartest guy on MLB Network, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> On a related note, if Harold Reynolds drives you bonkers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Perry is a better Capt. Hook than Christopher Walken or Dustin Hoffman, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Chase Anderson no longer pitches at Chase Field, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think “Classical Gas” is only a song by the wrong Mason Williams, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are perfectly clear on the fact that “Saltalamacchia” is not tonight’s special at that upscale Italian restaurant, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re excited about Gerardo Parra’s new altitude, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the hotel you book for your family vacation this Summer must have wireless access, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think twice when you hear the name Matt Duffy, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you have zero interest in the members of the Rockies starting rotation, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you go to a seafood restaurant and can’t bring yourself to order the (Mike) Trout, (Tim) Salmon, (Anthony) Bass, (Mike) Carp, Catfish (Hunter) or (Bobby) Sturgeon, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you book a flight to Honolulu and it makes you wonder if Shane Victorino is worth an end-game bid, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone you know names their child Rusney and it doesn’t phase you, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Doug Dennis is funnier than most stand-up comics on HBO, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you draft Gordon Beckham for $1 and feel that should also entitle you to Tim Beckham, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If a politician brings up the topic of inflation and you wonder why he isn’t also concerned with position scarcity, you just might be a keeper-league Fantasy player.

 

> If you keep waiting for your cruise ship to stop at the Island of Arruebarruena, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Brian Feldman has ever been your auctioneer, you just might be an expert-level Fantasy player.

 

> If have zero interest in middle relievers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Orlando Arcia and Oswaldo Arcia, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you suffer a personal injury and call Rick Wilton for a diagnoses, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Tyler Flowers could be related to Ray Flowers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that the term “Elvis Has Left the Building” means the Rangers Shortstop hit a Home Run, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Dayan Viciedo & Didi Gregorious are not females, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you and your wife exchanged dollar figures but still ended up going to arbitration, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Jeff Erickson is your favorite radio personality, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you meet someone named Roberto but keep calling him Fausto, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that Jhonny Peralta’s two productive seasons with the Cardinals caused Brian Walton to change his name to “Bhrian”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Bartolo Colon is the first player to report to Spring Training “in the worst shape of his life”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the true identities of CarGo, LoMo, K-Rod, J-Roll, J-Up & V-Mart, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever tried to buy something with “Patton Dollars”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you offered your girlfriend a qualifying offer but she still opted for free agency, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone uses the term “Wise Guy” and you think of Gene McCaffrey instead of Joe Pesci, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you lost 15 pounds during the off-season but it didn’t improve your performance, you just might be a “Puigy” Fantasy player.

 

> If Jeff Winick represented you in salary arbitration, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think a “Sale Price” is getting Chris for less than $20, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> And, finally, if Draft Day is your favorite day of the year, you have become a true Fantasy player.

Chase RC

Baseball ’73 – Part Deux

D'AquisitoOn our last visit, we turned the pages of a Street & Smith’s Baseball Yearbook from 1973. Pennant race predictions and AL prospects were reviewed along with some individual articles about relief pitching, tape-measure HR’s and the losses of Gil Hodges & Roberto Clemente. This time, we’ll look at the NL prospects of the time and also delve into sociology.

 

One of the interesting results of looking through a publication that is 40+ years old is the window into the society of the time. While the basics of baseball endure through the decades, everything around the game changes. So, in addition to the full-page ads for table games like Strat-O-Matic, APBA & Major League Baseball, let’s see what other advertising paid for full-page space to reach the baseball fan in 1973…

 

> Inside Cover, Huey Sports Enterprises – This was a company that essentially offered betting advice on baseball. It was Las Vegas based and for $150 a month, you could phone in each day and get their picks for which teams would win. They claimed to have had a winning record of over 75% during the 1972 season.

 

> P. 1, La Salle Extension University – Labeled as a “Correspondence Institution”, they offered education in everything from accounting to interior decorating.

 

> P. 5, Sports World Productions – Offered official league films of the NBA, the Super Bowl, the World Cup and other sports events. They were available in “Standard” or “Super 8” and were $14.95 each.

 

> P. 7, Fleetwood Instant Replay Record Albums – For $3.98 each, you could order these for your turn table. They were actual recordings of sports highlights including the “Miracle Mets”, “Big Red Machine” and “Year of the Tiger”.

 

> P. 9-11, Joe Weider’s Body-Building Booklet – On the order form, you could choose from “bigger arms”, “athletic legs”, “lose weight” and “magnetic personality”. Guess I’ll take “all of the above”.

 

> P. 17, Cleveland Institute of Electronics – Promised to get you out of that “dull, low pay job” and teach you about the growing world of electronics.

 

> P. 21, Powerex – Offered a new breakthru (their spelling) in muscle building using Isokinetics. For $11.95, you got the exerciser and a wall chart.

 

> P. 23, A.S. Barnes & Co. – For $12.50, you could order the 6th revised edition of the Official Encyclopedia of Baseball.

 

> P.29, Hymie’s Inc. – Another sports tout service out of Las Vegas. Offers to make you part of the “In Crowd”.

 

> P. 40, Sports Illustrated Book Club – Your membership got you three books for $3 along with your commitment to purchase four additional books in the next 12 months.

 

> Inside Back Cover, Charles Atlas – In case Weider didn’t transform you, Atlas promises to get you a “big, brawny, he-man body”.

 

One of the smaller ads in the back of the magazine offers a complete set of 1973 Topps baseball cards for $13…the current book value is $350!

 

Circling back to P. 115 and Bill Reddy’s preview of minor league prospects, let’s look at the picks from the NL…

 

> Braves, Andre Thornton – Never made it with the Braves but was an impact bat for the Indians in the late 70’s & early 80’s and ended up with 253 lifetime HR’s.

 

> Cubs, Pat Bourque – Was the MVP of the AAA American Association in 1972, but only had 405 MLB AB’s with a .215 BA over four seasons.

 

> Reds, Gene Locklear – Led the American Association in hitting with a .325 BA, but was traded to the Padres in June of ’73 and only had 595 AB’s in five seasons.

 

> Astros, J.R. Richard – Became one of the most dominant Pitchers in the game striking out over 300 batters in two different seasons. His career was cut short at age 30 after suffering a stroke during the 1980 season.

 

> Dodgers, Tom Paciorek – MVP of the Pacific Coast League in ’72, but never had a big impact in the Dodger line-up. Did end up playing parts of 18 seasons in the big leagues with a lifetime BA of .282.

 

> Expos, Pepe Mangual – Led the AAA International League with 91 Runs & 39 SB’s. Had one very productive campaign with Montreal in 1975 when he scored 84 Runs and swiped 33 bags, but by 1977 he was out of the game.

 

> Mets, Dave Schneck – Hit 24 HR’s in the minors in ’72, but never found a groove in the big leagues. Hit .199 in 413 lifetime AB’s.

 

> Phillies, Bob Boone – Stepped in as the regular Catcher in ’73 and had a 19-year major league career with seven Gold Gloves to his credit.

 

> Pirates, Richie Zisk – Hit .324 in his rookie season and went on to play 13 years with over 200 HR’s and two All-Star appearances.

 

> Cardinals, Ray Busse – The Redbirds thought they had their SS of the future after acquiring him in November of ’72, but it never happened. Had 155 lifetime AB’s with a .146 BA.

 

> Padres, Randy Elliott – Another top prospect that never fulfilled the promise, he hit only .215 in parts of four seasons.

 

> Giants, John D’Acquisto – Spent one more season in the minors and then was the NL Rookie Pitcher of the Year in ’74. To close the circle on this reflection, John & I have become friends over the last few years and he works for MLB in Arizona on the pace-of-play project. Yes, it is a small world.

 

Hope you enjoyed this trip to 1973…we’ll utilize the time machine again in the near future.

 

Turn The Page

One of my favorite rock anthems is Bob Seger’s “Turn The Page” from 1973. It just might be the ultimate road song of the era and never fails to grab your attention even 40+ years later.

 

The title got me to thinking about baseball fans and how they view the game differently than in 1973. Very seldom, do we actually “turn the page” to get our baseball information. For Fantasy players, the transition is even more consequential. When we started this silly game in the mid-80’s, stats were still found in the mid-week editions of USA Today. Today, your Internet stat service site will provide you with “live scoring” while games are still in progress. Dozens of websites tout their expertise and offer projections of every major league player using advanced analytics and algorithms.

 

As a young baseball fan, the most authoritative publication I could find each year was the Street & Smith’s Official Yearbook. It described itself as the “most complete – most informative” baseball publication. Fortunately, the Old Duck has saved many of the editions from the 60’s, 70’s & 80’s, so lets’ see what the writers predicted in the 1973 edition…the one with the A’s Reggie Jackson on the cover. By the way, there were full-page ads for table games Strat-O-Matic, APBA & Major League Baseball…more than a decade before Rotisserie Baseball became mainstream.

 

> Joe Trimble wrote the American League preview and was right on target, as he predicted the A’s to win the West (they won 94 games) and the Orioles to win the East (97 victories). The main topic, however, was the introduction of the Designated Hitter for the first time. Some AL teams had to react quickly if they didn’t have an aging hitter ready to step in the role and one was the Red Sox, who signed 35 year-old Orlando Cepeda. The future Hall of Famer had been released in November, but the DH rule gave him a new lease on life and he hit .289 with 20 HR’s & 86 RBI’s to help the BoSox to a 2nd place finish.

 

> Richard Dozer’s National League preview had the Reds winning the West (which they did with 99 Wins), but the East was another story. The Pirates were picked to win but couldn’t muster even a .500 record (80-82). In fact, the Division winning Mets were only 82-79 and no other team had a winning record. The lead story, however, was the sad recounting of the deaths of Mets Manager Gil Hodges and Pirates legend Roberto Clemente.

 

> Bob Addie wrote an article about Fireman (relief pitchers) and chronicled the career of Hoyt Wilhelm, who retired after the ’72 season. He was 49 years old and had pitched in over 1,000 big league games. Only two hurlers had over 30 Saves in 1972…Clay Carroll of the Reds (37) & Sparky Lyle of the Yankees (35).

 

> A short piece on P. 72 recapped the hitting feat of the Padres Nate Colbert, who had five HR’s & 13 RBI’s in a double-header the previous August.

 

> Other non-byline articles included Nolan Ryan & Steve Carlton both joining the 300-strikeout club and another on “tape-measure” Home Runs.

 

> In the back of the magazine, following all the rosters and previous season’s statistics, there’s an article by Bill Reddy titled “The Minor Leagues, Key to the Majors”. Can you imagine today’s fan waiting until P. 115 to read about prospects? Here are some of his AL picks for 1973…

 

* Orioles, Al Bumbry – Won the AL Rookie of the Year Award by hitting .337 with a league leading 11 Triples.

 

* Red Sox, Dwight Evans – Only hit .223 as a rookie, but never looked back and had an outstanding 20-year career…also won eight Gold Gloves.

 

* Angels, Doug Howard – Led the PCL with 109 RBI’s, but never succeeded at the major league level. Hit .212 in 217 lifetime AB’s.

 

* White Sox, Jorge Orta – Hit .266 in his rookie season and had a 16-year MLB career…made two All-Star teams.

 

* Indians, Charlie Spikes – Hit 45 HR’s in his first two seasons for the Tribe and then faded away.

 

* Tigers, Smokey Robinson – The Bengals 1st pick in the ’68 Draft, he had 28 HR’s and 94 RBI’s in the Southern League but never made it to “The Show”. His given first name was Murray.

 

* Royals, Gene Garber – This RH Pitcher had a cup of coffee with the Pirates but after being traded to KC, he had 9 Wins and 11 saves in his first full season. Pitched in the majors until 1988.

 

* Brewers, Howard Wilbur – Led the American Association in hits, but never made an impact at the big league level. Played parts of six seasons in the 70’s and hit .250. He did steal 32 bases for the Astros in ’75.

 

* Twins, Joe Decker – This RH Pitcher won 10 games in ’73 and then 16 in ’74, but the 248 IP workload that year did him in…only won 3 more games in the majors.

 

* Yankees, Mike Pazik – This LH Pitcher won 10 games at AAA Syracuse in ’72 and then 13 more for the same squad in ’73. Never made it to New York and after being traded to the Twins, had only 1 Win in the big leagues.

 

* Athletics, Bill North – This speedy OF was acquired from the Cubs and swiped 53 bases for the World Champion A’s. Led the AL in stolen bases twice in the 70’s.

 

* Rangers, Jeff Burroughs – This power-hitter burst on the scene with 30 HR’s & 85 RBI’s. The following year, he was the AL MVP.

 

Next time, we’ll review the NL prospects for 1973 and look a little deeper into the pages of the magazine.

 

 

The Best Hitters Of 2016

50 years ago, if a baseball fan was asked who the best hitters were, the only significant resource would have been the sports section of the Sunday newspaper. Somewhere in the back pages, there was a long, slender list in very small type showing all current major league players. And those players were ranked by their BA (Batting Average) because that had historically been the benchmark for position players.

 

Looking back at 1966, we find that the top five BA’s belonged to Matty Alou (.342), Manny Mota (.332), Felipe Alou (.327), Rico Carty (.326) & Dick Allen (.317). Fine players all, but were they the five best hitters in baseball? Not when you consider that the two MVP winners (Roberto Clemente and Frank Robinson) finished 6th & 7th. Matty Alou, for example, had 2 HR’s & 27 RBI’s in 535 AB’s. Even OBP (On-Base Percentage) would have been a better gauge, as the top five were Ron Santo (.412), Joe Morgan (.410), Robinson (.410), Allen (.396) & Al Kaline (.392).

 

As modern baseball analytics have evolved, one of the most accepted statistics has become OPS (On-Base % + Slugging %). Not only does it prioritize getting on base, it also adds the concept of moving more runners around the bases. After all, Slugging Percentage is defined as Total Bases /At Bats. Old school fans might question the veracity of the stat but baseball history tells the tale. The five highest lifetime OPS numbers belong to Babe Ruth (1.16), Ted Williams (1.12), Lou Gehrig (1.08), Barry Bonds (1.05) & Jimmie Foxx (1.04). There are only two other hitters with a number over 1.00… Hank Greenberg and Rogers Hornsby.

 

With Spring Training around the corner, here’s one Duck’s opinion on the top dozen hitters for 2016 and their projected OPS…

 

1) Bryce Harper, Nats OF, .982 OPS – At age 23, he’s proved the hype was real back when he graced the cover of SI at age 16. Barring injury, 35 HR’s & 100 RBI’s with a .300 BA should be the norm.

 

2) Mike Trout, Angels OF, .976 OPS – 20 years from now, people will be describing his career as “once in a generation”. Almost the exact projection as Harper, but he could steal a few more bases and bring back a few opponent HR’s from over the fence.

 

3) Paul Goldschmidt, D’Backs 1B, .947 OPS – Incredibly consistent performer in the batter’s box and also won a Gold Glove in 2015.

 

4) Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins OF, .937 OPS – We say this every year, but it all comes down to him staying on the field…150 games will produce 40+ HR’s.

 

5) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 1B, .936 OPS – Finally showed a slight decline last season at age 32, but he’s a bona fide Hall of Fame candidate.

 

6) Joey Votto, Reds 1B, .928 OPS – Still gets criticized for his plate discipline and will lead all of baseball in Walks (100+). Like Ted Williams, he won’t expand the strike zone to satisfy writers and broadcasters.

 

7) Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 1B, .901 – Part of Toronto’s three-headed monster, he’s heading into his age 33 season but with that line-up, opposing teams can’t pitch around him.

 

8) Andrew McCutchen, Pirates OF, .898 OPS – Still under 30, he has power, speed and plate discipline…and also plays a great CF.

 

9) Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 1B, .885 OPS – The face of the new-age Cubbies, he’ll hit 30+ HR’s and add double-digit SB’s.

 

10) Jose Bautista, Blue Jays OF, .879 OPS – Another mid-30’s slugger in Toronto’s line-up, both he and Encarnacion have better projected OPS figures that the AL MVP Josh Donaldson, who finished just out of the top 12 at .866.

 

11) Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B, .870 – Entering his 3rd big league campaign at age 29, he could get even better. 30+ HR’s and 100+ RBI’s seems like a lock.

 

12) Nolan Arenado, Rockies 3B, .870 – His numbers are slightly inflated due to the thin air in Denver, but they still count. In addition, he’s only 25 and won the 2015 Gold Glove at the hot corner.

 

Did your favorite player get left off the list? Maybe Chris Davis makes good on his new contract? Or youngsters like Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts or Miguel Sano take the next step? Or players coming back from injury such as Freddie Freeman and Yasiel Puig prove their worth. We’ll all be watching.

 

He Hit The Ball Real Hard!

Back in the mid-90’s when ESPN was actually watchable, Keith Olbermann & Dan Patrick manned the anchor desk for “SportsCenter” and entertained us with catch-phrases and clichés that made fun of sports. From Patrick’s “En Fuego”, “Gives him the high cheese” & “You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him” to Olbermann’s “They’re not going to get him”, “I can read his lips and he’s not praying” & “He beats him like a rented goalie”, it all amused and entertained.

 

During baseball highlights that included a Home Run, Keith’s fall back cliché was “He hit the ball real hard” and reminiscing about those broadcasts got me to thinking…how hard and far do they really hit the ball? In today’s analytic environment, we actually know the answer. So, with some help from fangraphs.com and baseballheatmaps.com, let’s look at the last three years and the players who hit the ball real hard.

 

The basic criteria is to determine the average distance a batter hits a ball in the air. This includes both fly balls and home runs and gives us a peak into the power potential of hitters. Of course, as with most statistics, it doesn’t stand alone because we also have to consider all the variables. If a player strikes out 35% of the time and hits .190, the distance of his fly balls isn’t really significant because he won’t help your team.

 

Here are some observations from looking over the leaderboard…

 

> For 2013-15, there are about 20 hitters each year who average over 300 feet in distance.

 

>  The best performance over the last three seasons was Giancarlo Stanton’s 2015 average of 323 feet.

 

> Paul Goldschmidt just might be the most consistent hitter in baseball. He’s finished 2nd, 1st & 4th with averages of 314, 315 & 310 feet.

 

> Carlos Gonzalez was the 2013 leader with 314 feet (just edging Goldy), but he plays half of his games at altitude.

 

> Jose Abreu has finished 5th & 6th in his first two major league seasons (305 & 308).

 

> Miguel Cabrera was in the top six for ’13 & ’14 but dropped to 29th last season.

 

> J.D. Martinez has gone from 291 feet in ’13 to 299 in ’14 to 305 in ’15.

 

> Pedro Alvarez finished 3rd in both ’13 & ’15 (311 feet each time) but doesn’t have a job.

 

> The best rookies in 2015 were Kyle Schwarber (5th at 308 ft.), Stephen Piscotty ( 13th at 305), Joc Pederson (17th at 304), Miguel Sano (21st at 303) and Randall Grichuk (23rd at 302).

 

> The two Rookies of the Year faired well with Carlos Correa at 298 ft. and Kris Bryant at 297.

 

> Names you wouldn’t expect to see from the ’15 list include Jonathan Schoop (#8 at 306), Brandon Crawford (#9 at 306), Howie Kendrick (#14 at 305) and Alex Guerrero (#27 at 301).

 

> As for the MVP’s, Josh Donaldson was 15th at 304 ft. while Bryce Harper finished 33rd at 299.

 

> Others in the top ten last season included Chris Davis (#2 at 316), Nelson Cruz (#7 at 307) and Starling Marte (#10 at 306).

 

So, in April when one of your favorite players is on the highlights and hits a high drive toward the seats, get off the couch and yell, “He hit the ball real hard”.

The Big Baseball Card Box – Row 1

In order to be a “Power Seller” of baseball cards on eBay, you don’t necessarily have to be a baseball fan…but it sure makes life more interesting.

 

Each year, tens of thousands of baseball cards go through my hands and are viewed by these weary eyes. Sometimes, it’s a collection I have purchased from a private party. Other times, it might be a collection that someone has acquired and they want my opinion on the value. And, occasionally, I act as a conduit between people who are selling and buying cards. In all of these cases, the first thing to know that is that 95+% of the cards have no real value. They represent players known in the business as “commons” and even though every card has a book price, they are basically worthless in the marketplace.

 

For a real fan, however, there is no such thing as a “common” player because there’s a story behind every photo on every card. So, whenever this type of “junk” collection comes my way, I revert to being a fan. One of my clients dropped off a small collection last week and included was a 5,000-count box that he said had “nothing of value”. I’m still going to look through the cards but instead of having any monetary expectation, the history of small stories and legends fill my brain. The first row included baseball cards from the late 70’s, so let’s see who was found.

 

1979 Topps

 

> #31…Tom House, Mariners Pitcher – After nine years in the majors, he had only won 29 games. Later, however, he became one of the most respected pitching coaches in the game and even helped NFL QB’s with their throwing techniques. And, of course, in 1975 he was in the Braves bullpen and caught Hank Aaron’s 715th Home Run ball.

 

> #94…Len Barker, Rangers Pitcher – His record in ’78 was 1-5 with a 4.85 ERA, but in 1979 he was traded to the Indians and in 1981, he became one of only 23 players in history to pitch a perfect game.

 

> #309…Ralph Garr, White Sox OF – This back-story was told recently at a SABR meeting attended by Mike Port and Roland Hemond. The Angels were battling for the AL West title in September of 1979 when their DH Willie Aikens got injured, putting them in desperate need of a LH bat for the stretch drive. Port, the Angels Assistant GM called Hemond, the White Sox GM, and made a cash offer for Garr that was only valid if the player could be in Kansas City that night for the Angels game. The White Sox were starting a road-trip and flying to Seattle, so Roland had to get to O’Hare Airport in time to get Ralph off the Sox charter and across the airport to the KC flight. The deal got done and the Angels won the Division.

 

> #327…Art Howe, Astros 2B – Played for 11 seasons and managed for 14 more, but his legacy will always be the negative portrayal of him by Philip Seymour Hoffman in the movie “Moneyball”.

 

> #329…Joe Coleman, Blue Jays P – This was his last of 15 seasons in the big leagues. His Dad (also named Joe) pitched in the majors from 1942-55 and his son Casey debuted with the Cubs in 2010.

 

> #399…David Clyde, Indians P – The #1 pick out of High School in the 1973 Amateur Draft, he started 18 games for the Rangers at age 18 without throwing one pitch in the minor leagues. By 1979, at age 24, he won only 3 games with a ERA of 5.91 and never pitched in the major leagues again.

 

> #442…Doyle Alexander, Rangers P – Pitched 19 seasons and won 194 games. In 1987, the Tigers acquired him from the Braves in August for the stretch drive and he went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA that helped them win the AL East. The obscure minor league player the Braves got in the deal went into the Hall of Fame last year…his name is John Smoltz!

 

> #455…Bill Lee, Red Sox P – His outrageous personality overshadowed his baseball ability and it’s easy to forget that he won 17 games in three consecutive seasons during the mid-70’s. With that being said, he didn’t acquire the nickname “Spaceman” for nothing. He once said, “They asked me about mandatory drug testing. I said I believed in drug testing a long time ago. All through the 60’s, I tested everything”.

 

> #511…Paul Reuschel, Indians P – Being the second best baseball player in the family never makes you famous. Hank Aaron hit 755 HR’s, his brother Tommie hit 13. Rick Reuschel won 214 games in a 19-year career, while Paul won 16 games in five big league seasons.

 

> #605…Rick Monday, Dodgers OF – In 1964, Dodger scout Tommy Lasorda tried to sign this 18 year-old out of Santa Monica High School. The prospect decided to play college baseball at Arizona State and while he was there, MLB instituted the amateur draft. In 1965, Monday was the first player ever picked in this manner by the Kansas City Athletics. He made his major league debut in 1966 and was eventually traded from the Cubs to the Dodgers in 1977. The Dodger Manager at the time? You guessed it…Tommy Lasorda.

 

Maybe some of these names brought back a few memories. As for me…row #2 awaits.