Author: cflduck

In our community, we have a very active and enthusiastic sports interest group. Headed up by a retired New York City schoolteacher, who is also the world’s biggest Giants fan, we’ve been fortunate enough to have visits from Fergie Jenkins, Josh Hamilton, Matt Williams, John D’Acquisto, Hall of Fame Baseball Executive Roland Hemond and dozens of other sports luminaries. Each Spring, as our homage to Spring Training and the new baseball season, we host a baseball panel discussion on a particular topic. In the past, we’ve reviewed the “Golden Age of Baseball” (the 50’s & 60’s), debated the Hall of Fame, previewed the upcoming season, rated the top ten players at each position, reviewed the ten greatest teams of all time and discussed All-Star teams by decade. Last year, we looked into the future to see what major league baseball would look like in the year 2025. So, for 2018, the topic is the worst trades in the history of the game.

 

Earlier this week in front of an enthusiastic audience, the panel reviewed famous trades from the last 100+ years that involved members of the Hall of Fame. While there have been hundreds of lousy trades in baseball, giving up on a future Cooperstown inductee is a category all its own. Here are my notes from the presentation…

 

MOST CASUAL FANS WOULD IMMEDIATELY THINK OF BABE RUTH WHEN THE TOPIC OF BAD TRADES IN BASEBALL IS ADDRESSED. WE’LL DISCUSS 16 DEALS TODAY BUT BABE’S NAME WON’T BE INCLUDED. WHY? BECAUSE RUTH WASN’T TRADED! IF YOU LOOK UP THE OFFICIAL TRANSACTION FROM DECEMBER OF 1919, IT SAYS “PURCHASED BY THE NEW YORK YANKEES FROM THE BOSTON RED SOX FOR $100,000”. THAT MONEY ALLOWED RED SOX OWNER HARRY FRAZEE TO INVEST IN A BROADWAY SHOW CALLED “NO NO NANETTE”. IN FACT, HE HAD REPORTEDLY TURNED DOWN AN OFFER FROM THE WHITE SOX THAT INLCUDED JOE JACKSON & $60,000. SO, UNTIL SOMEONE SHOWS US NANETTE’S LIFETIME STATS, IT WASN’T ANY MORE OF A TRADE THAN THE PIRATES GETTING ROBERTO CLEMENTE FROM THE DODGERS IN THE 1954 RULE 5 DRAFT.

 

#1 – JOE JACKSON FOR BRIS LORD (1910)

 

* THE FIRST TRADE ON OUR LIST DOESN’T TECHNICALLY INCLUDE A HALL-OF-FAMER, BUT HE WOULD HAVE BEEN IF NOT FOR THE 1919 BLACK SOX SCANDEL. DURING THE 1910 SEASON, THE PHILADELPHIA ATHLETICS TRADED A 22 YEAR-OLD UNPROVEN OUTFIELDER NAMED JOE JACKSON TO THE CLEVELAND NAPS FOR BRIS LORD. JACKSON’S FIRST FULL SEASON IN 1911 PRODUCED A .408 BA WITH A LEAGUE-LEADING .468 OBP. “SHOELESS JOE” WENT ON TO BECOME ONE OF THE GREATEST PLAYERS OF THE ERA, WITH A LIFETIME BA OF .356. IN HIS FINAL SEASON BEFORE BEING SUSPENDED (1920), HE HIT .382 AND LED THE LEAGUE WITH 20 TRIPLES. ON THE OTHER HAND, BRIS LORD PLAYED THREE SEASONS WITH THE A’S BEFORE RETIRING WITH A LIFETIME BA OF .256.

 

# 2 – JOHN SMOLTZ FOR DOYLE ALEXANDER (1987)

 

* THE TIGERS WERE FIGHTING FOR THE AL EAST CROWN AND NEEDED TO BOLSTER THEIR PITCHING STAFF, SO THEY TRADED AN UNKNOWN MINOR-LEAGUER TO THE BRAVES FOR 36 YEAR-OLD DOYLE ALEXANDER. ALEXANDER RESPONDED BY GOING 9-0 OVER THE SECOND HALF AND HELPED THE BENGALS GET TO THE PLAYOFFS. HE PITCHED TWO MORE SEASONS FOR DETROIT (GOING 20-29) BEFORE RETIRNG. THE UNKNOWN PITCHER IN THE DEAL WAS JOHN SMOLTZ, WHO SENT ON TO ACCUMULATE 213 WINS & 154 SAVES ON HIS WAY TO THE HALL-OF-FAME.

 

#3 – JOE MORGAN FOR LEE MAY (1971)

 

* LEE MAY WAS AN ALL-STAR 1B FOR THE REDS IN 1971, BUT IN AN EFFORT TO IMPROVE THEIR OVERALL LINE-UP, CINCINNATI SWAPPED HIM TO THE ASTROS FOR A YOUNG 2B NAMED JOE MORGAN. MAY WENT ON TO HAVE A PRODUCTIVE CAREER WITH 354 LIFETIME HR’S BUT MORGAN BECAME THE HEART OF THE “BIG RED MACHINE” WINNING TWO MVP’S AND FIVE GOLD GLOVES. HE HAD A LIFETIME “WAR’ (WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT) OF OVER 100 AND WAS INDUCTED INTO COOPERSTOWN IN 1990.

 

#4 – TOM SEAVER FOR 4 PLAYERS (1977)

 

* BY 1977, FREE AGENCY WAS PART OF THE BASEBALL LANDSCAPE AND TOM SEAVER WAS ONE OF THE BEST PITCHERS IN THE GAME. HE HAD CAPTURED THREE CY YOUNG AWARDS AND WAS STILL AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME AT AGE 32. SEAVER WANTED TO BE COMPENSATED IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO OTHER TOP PITCHERS OF THE TIME BUT THE METS WEREN’T BUDGING, SO IN MID-SEASON, THEY TRADED “TOM TERRIFIC” TO THE REDS FOR DOUG FLYNN, STEVE HENDERSON, DAN NORMAN & PAT ZACHRY. SEAVER FINISHED ’77 WITH A 21-6 RECORD AND BY 1978, THE METS WERE ONE OF THE WORST TEAMS IN BASEBALL.

 

#5 – DENNIS ECKERSLEY FOR PROSPECTS ( 1987)

 

* IN 1986, DENNIS ECKERSLEY WAS A STARTING PITCHER FOR THE CUBS AND POSTED A RECORD OF 6-11 AT AGE 31. THE CUBBIES TRADED HIM JUST PRIOR TO THE ’87 SEASON TO THE ATHLETICS FOR BRIAN GUINN, MARK LEONETTE & DAVE WILDER. THE A’S CONVERTED HIM TO A CLOSER AND HE SAVED 387 GAMES OVER THE NEXT 12 SEASONS ON HIS WAY TO THE HALL OF FAME. NONE OF THE THREE PROSPECTS EVER APPEARED IN A MAJOR-LEAGUE GAME.

 

# 6 – LOU BROCK FOR ERNIE BROGLIO (1964)

 

* AFTER 2+ SEASONS, THE CUBS GAVE UP ON OUTFIELDER LOU BROCK AND TRADED HIM TO THE CARDINALS FOR PITCHER ERNIE BROGLIO. BROCK HIT .348 FOR THE REST OF THAT SEASON AND LED THE REDBIRDS TO THREE PENNANTS AND TWO WORLD SERIES DURING HIS CAREER. HE IS 2ND ON THE ALL-TIME SB LIST WITH 938. BROGLIO PLAYED 2+ SEASONS WITH THE CUBS AND COMPILED A 7-19 RECORD.

 

#7 – RYNE SANDBERG FOR IVAN DEJESUS (1982)

 

* BEFORE THE 1982 SEASON, THE PHILLIES SWAPPED SS LARRY BOWA AND A 3B PROSPECT NAMED RYNE SANDBERG TO THE CUBS FOR SS IVAN DE JESUS. CHICAGO MOVED SANDBERG TO 2B WHERE HE WON NINE GOLD GLOVES, HIT 282 HR’S AND BECAME A HALL OF FAME PLAYER. DE JESUS WAS THE PHILS SS FOR THREE SEASONS AND NEVER BATTED HIGHER THAN .257.

 

# 8 – GAYLORD PERRY FOR SAM MCDOWELL (1971)

 

* AFTER THE 1971 SEASON, THE INDIANS WERE SHOPPING THEIR BEST PITCHER, SAM MCDOWELL. THEY FINALLY DECIDED TO MAKE A DEAL WITH THE GIANTS FOR GAYLORD PERRY. BOTH HURLERS WERE OUTSTANDING TOP-OF-THE-ROTATION GUYS BUT MCDOWELL WAS THREE YEARS YOUNGER. THE OUTCOME WAS THAT PERRY WENT 24-16 FOR THE TRIBE AND WON THE AL CY YOUNG AWARD. HE WENT ON TO WIN 314 GAMES IN HIS CAREER AND ENTERED COOPERSTOWN IN 1991. MCDOWELL POSTED A RECORD OF 10-8 FOR SAN FRANCISCO IN ’72 AND WAS OUT OF BASEBALL THREE YEARS LATER.

 

#9 – CHRISTY MATHEWSON FOR AMOS RUSIE (1900)

 

* AMOS RUSIE MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE BEST PITCHER OF THE 1890’S, WINNING 246 GAMES BETWEEN 1889-1898. ARM TROUBLE KEPT HIM OFF THE MOUND IN 1899 & 1900 AND THEN THE GIANTS TRADED HIM TO THE REDS PRIOR TO THE 1901 SEASON FOR AN UNKNOWN 19 YEAR-OLD NAMED CHRISTY MATHEWSON. RUSIE PITCHED ONLY THREE GAMES FOR THE REDS BEFORE RETIRING WHILE MATHEWSON WON 30 OR MORE GAMES FOUR TIMES AND HAD 373 VICTORIES IN HIS CAREER BECOMING PART OF THE FIRST HALL OF FAME CLASS IN 1936.

 

#10 – NOLAN RYAN FOR JIM FREGOSI (1971)

 

* FORMER ALL-STAR SHORTSTOP JIM FREGOSI LASTED LESS THAN TWO SEASONS WITH THE METS AFTER BEING ACQUIRED FOR NOLAN RYAN FROM THE ANGELS. OF COURSE, RYAN BECAME A LEGENDARY PITCHER, PLAYING 27 SEASONS, WINNING 324 GAMES, STRIKING OUT 5,714 BATTERS AND PITCHED SEVEN NO-HITTERS.

 

#11 – PEDRO MARTINEZ FOR DELINO DESHIELDS (1993)

 

* THE DODGERS FELT THAT PEDRO MARTINEZ WAS TOO SMALL TO HAVE A PRODUCTIVE CAREER AS A STARTING PITCHER, SO THEY SENT HIM TO THE EXPOS FOR DELINO DESHIELDS. MARTINEZ WON THREE CY YOUNG AWARDS, WAS AN EIGHT-TIME ALL STAR AND HAD THE HIGHEST WINNING PERCENTAGE OF ANY 200-GAME WINNER IN MODERN BASEBALL HISTORY.

 

#12 – STEVE CARLTON FOR RICK WISE (1972)

 

* STEVE CARLSTON WAS A 20-GAME WINNER FOT THE CARDINALS IN 1971 AT AGE 26. DESPITE THAT PERFORMANCE, THEY TRADED HIM TO THE PHILLIES FOR RICK WISE PRIOR TO THE 1972 SEASON. IN ’72, CARLTON HAD ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS SEASONS AS HE WON 27 GAMES FOR THE LAST-PLACE PHILS, WINNING A RECORD 45% OF THE TEAM’S TOTAL VICTORIES. IT WON HIM THE FIRST OF HIS FOUR CY YOUNG AWARDS ON THE WAY TO 329 CAREER WINS. WISE WON 16 GAMES EACH OF THE NEXT TWO YEARS FOR THE CARDINALS AND HAD A PRODUCTIVE CAREER WITH 188 WINS, BUT HE WAS NEVER IN THE CATEGORY OF “LEFTY”.

 

#13 – ORLANDO CEPEDA FOR RAY SADECKI (1966)

 

ORLANDO CEPEDA WAS THE 1958 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AND HAD SEVEN OUTSTANDING SEASONS WITH THE GIANTS. IN 1965, HOWEVER HE MISSED MOST OF THE SEASON AND THE GIANTS WON 91 GAMES WITH WILLIE MCCOVEY AT 1B. NOT HAVING ROOM FOR BOTH PLAYERS, THEY SWAPPED CEPEDA TO THE CARDINALS IN EARLY ’66 FOR PITCHER RAY SADECKI. CEPEDA CONTINUED HIS EXCELLENT CAREER INCLUDING A WORLD SERIES TITLE IN 1967 WHEN HE WON THE NL MVP AWARD, LEADING THE LEAGUE WITH 111 RBI’S. SADECKI WAS 29-32 OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS IN SAN FRANCISCO AND HIS CAREER WENT DOWNHILL QUICKLY.

 

#14 – JEFF BAGWELL FOR LARRY ANDERSON (1990)

 

* IN A TRADE THAT CLOSELY PARALLELS THE SMOLTZ-ALEXANDER DEAL, THE RED SOX NEEDED PITCHING HELP DOWN THE STRETCH OF THE 1990 SEASON AND ACQUIRED LARRY ANDERSEN FROM THE ASTROS FOR A MINOR-LEAGUE PROSPECT. ANDERSEN WAS 37 AT THE TIME AND WAS ABOUT TO BECOME A FREE AGENT, BUT HE APPEARED IN 15 GAMES FOR THE BOSOX AND HELPED THEM WIN THE AL EAST. THE PROSPECT TURNED OUT TO BE JEFF BAGWELL, WHO WON THE 1991 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AND THE 1994 MVP AWARD ON HIS WAY TO 449 CAREER HR’S AND A SPOT IN COOPERSTOWN.

 

#15 – RANDY JOHNSON FOR MARK LANGSTON (1989)

 

* IN MAY OF 1989, THE EXPOS GAVE UP ON AN ERRATIC LEFT-HANDED PITCHER WHO HAD COMPILED A RECORD OF 7-17 OVER THE PREVIOUS SEASON+. THEY WERE ABLE TO GET A QUALITY PITCHER IN RETURN BUT ONLY BECAUSE MARK LANGSTON WAS GOING TO BE A FREE AGENT AFTER THE SEASON. THE PLAYER THEY GAVE UP TO THE MARINERS WAS RANDY JOHNSON, WHO WON FIVE CY YOUNG AWARDS IN HIS HALL OF FAME CAREER.

 

#16 – FRANK ROBINSON FOR MILT PAPPAS (1965)

 

* FRANK ROBINSON WON THE NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR IN 1958 AND HAD TEN GREAT SEASONS WITH THE REDS INCLUDING A MVP AWARD IN ’61. MAYBE THE REDS WERE USING THE OLD ADAGE OF TRADING A PLAYER A YEAR TOO SOON INSTEAD OF A YEAR TOO LATE, BUT IT DIDN’T WORK OUT FOR THE FRANCHISE. HE WAS TRADED TO THE ORIOLES PRIOR TO THE ’66 SEASON, WHERE HE WON THE AL MVP AND LED THE BIRDS TO THE WORLD SERIES TITLE. MILT PAPPAS WAS THE PITCHER IN THE DEAL AND EVEN THOUGH HE WON 209 GAMES IN HIS CAREER, HE WAS NEVER AN ALL-STAR AFTER THE TRADE.

 

OF COURSE, EVERY FAN OF AN INDIVIDUAL TEAM CAN LOOK BACK AND REMEMBER AN AWFUL TRADE MADE BY THE “MUDVILLE NINE”. HOW ABOUT SOME OF THESE…

 

> MARK MCGWIRE TO THE CARDINALS FOR THREE MINOR-LRAGUE PITCHERS

 

* GEORGE FOSTER TO THE REDS FOR FRAN DUFFY & VERN GEISHERT

 

* SPARKY LYLE TO THE YANKEES FOR DANNY CATER

 

* DEREK LOWE & JASON VARITEK TO THE RED SOX FOR HEATHCLIFFE SLOCUMB

 

* ROGER MARIS TO THE YANKEES FOR DON LARSEN, NORM SIEBERN & HANK BAUER

 

* KENNY LOFTON TO THE INDIANS FOR EDDIE TAUBENSEE

 

* NORM CASH TO THE TIGERS FOR STEVE DEMETER

 

* PAUL KONERKO TO THE WHITE SOX FOR MIKE CAMERON

 

FEEL FREE TO ADD MORE OF YOUR OWN

 

 

 

How would you like to be invited to participate in the most unique Fantasy Baseball league in the industry? Looking back to 2002, the Old Duck was thrilled to be part of the Xperts Fantasy League (XFL), the vision of Ron Shandler and the first industry keeper league. Some of the most respected pundits and players of the game were kind enough to invite three “challengers” to be included as part of the 12-team group. As one of these home-league players, I was nervous and excited to sit down at the draft table that November and test my skills against the best.

 

As we enter our 16th season, it has been a great ride for this lifetime baseball fan. We’ve expanded to 15 teams and the camaraderie established over the years has led to genuine friendships with a great group of guys. And, to my surprise, the Quacker has turned out to be a decent player with championships in 2005, 2009, 2011 & 2012.

 

The XFL is a 5×5 keeper league (with OBP instead of BA) that has an auction budget of $260 for 23 players. We conduct the draft only a month after the baseball season ends and no research (or computers) are allowed at the table. Utilizing just MLB depth charts handed out prior to the first player being nominated, it is a test of your player-pool knowledge and prognostication. There is a significantly high inflation factor because many of the players on the keeper lists have salaries much lower than their projected values. Here’s the roster of Donald’s Dux (“K” for keepers, “D” for drafted) following the November draft…

 

C – Willson Contreras $7 (K)

C – Jason Castro $1 (D)

1B – Anthony Rizzo $33 (K)

3B – Eduardo Nunez $18 (D)

1/3 – Jose Abreu $13 (K)

2B – Yoan Moncada $4 (K)

SS – Didi Gregorious $6 (K)

2/S – Jonathan Scoop $11 (K)

OF – Yasiel Puig $16 (K)

OF – Shin-Soo Choo $12 (D)

OF – Odubel Herrera $16 (D)

OF – Domingo Santana $16 (K)

OF – Michael Taylor $9 (D)

U – Randal Grichuk $3 (D)

P – Kenley Jansen $23 (D)

P – Patrick Corbin $3 (D)

P – Julio Urias $4 (K)

P – Jeff Samardzija $17 (D)

P – Michael Wacha $10 (D)

P – Julio Teheran $10 (D)

P – Gio Gonzalez $12 (K)

P – Kelvin Herrera $6 (K)

P – Luis Gohara $8 (D)

FARM – Willy Adames (K)

FARM – Gleyber Torres (K)

FARM – Kolby Allard (K)

FARM – Alex Verdugo (K)

 

To lend some insight into the keeper salaries, players drafted in the auction have their salary increase $5 each season. So, for example, Santana was drafted for $11 the previous year. Any player who qualifies as a rookie has his salary increase only $3 each season. So, because the Dux drafted Puig in 2013 before he appeared in an actual major league game, he is entering his 6th year on the roster. The league plays the season with 40-man rosters (23 active each week), so at the end of March there is a supplemental, on-line, snake draft to fill the remaining slots. These legal supplements can have a huge influence on the success of your team because so much can happen between November & March. For the teams who drafted (or kept) Danny Salazar, Zack Britton, Eduardo Rodriguez, Julio Urias, Jimmy Nelson, Ervin Santana, Jose De Leon, Brent Honeywell & others, the first few rounds of this supplemental phase are critical to their team’s ability to contend.

 

As the result of finishing 5th in 2017, the Dux had the 4th pick in this supplemental phase as the first of 13 players to be added to the roster. As always, it becomes a lesson in strategy as to the utilization of scarce resources from a pool where over 350 players were already rostered. The current projections for the 23-man rosters have the Dux in a respectable 5th place, but the weakness is in starting pitching and the injury to Gohara exacerbates that problem. The first question regarding strategy was whether or not an available SP was worth the 4th pick, as compared to the best player (or prospect). Research indicated that the SP pool only had names like JA Happ, Mike Tomlin, Joe Musgrove, Hyun-Jin Ryu, & Tyler Chatwood. That made it clear that the value of the 4th choice needed to yield a prospect who might be a long-term keeper.

 

 

Now, a word about prospects. Due to deep rosters, teams are not shy when it comes to rostering young players low in the minors and holding them until they’re ready. This is one of the key elements to a “dynasty” format and the owners in this league know everything about projectable minor leaguers, college players and even an occasional high-school star. In any given year, you could take a top-20 prospect list from your favorite publication or website and about 18 of them are already on one of the XFL teams. The real gems in the 1st round of the supplemental draft are players who have rookie status and a major league job like Jose Abreu, who the Dux selected with the first pick in 2014. No player in that category emerged for 2018, so minor-league prospects were the priority.

 

Interestingly, the best available youngsters were all Shortstops…Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette & Royce Lewis. While SS isn’t a great fit for my roster with Torres & Adames already on the Farm, you can’t have too many good players at a scarce position. So, unless they went 1-2-3 ahead of me, one of them would be the choice. If you might wonder why a young pitching prospect wouldn’t be a priority, it is because the fragility of those players isn’t worth rolling the dice in the first round…Honeywell was taken with the 9th pick last year.  A major-league starting pitcher would be targeted in Round 2, then major league back-ups for 3B, SS & C with an eye for players who might be able to be kept for two seasons ($1 this year and $6 next year).

 

Teams have very difficult choices in the initial rounds, as they need to balance filling holes on their roster with also acquiring some long-term talent. This year, as we gathered at our computers, the wheels were turning for 15 separate owners and here are the 1st Round results…

 

> 1.01 Fernando Tatis Jr. – Arguably the best prospect on the board.

 

> 1.02 Brandon Morrow – One of a handful of Closers available, he could rack up the Saves in Chicago if his health holds up.

 

> 1.03 Bo Bichette – Dante’s Son and named after Bo Jackson, he’s only 19.

 

> 1.04 Royce Lewis – As predicted, one of the three SS fell to me at this spot…he’s not that far behind the first two and at age 18, the future is bright.

 

> 1.05 MacKenzie Gore – This 18 year-old Padre LH was one of the highest rated pitching prospects on the board.

 

> 1.06 Dustin Fowler – Seems to be recovering well from a horrific 2017 injury and could be the starter in CF for the A’s.

 

> 1.07 Forrest Whitley – Along with Gore, the Astro RH brings great promise.

 

> 1.08 Cal Quantrill – Another big talent in the Padres system, this RH is the Son of Paul Quantrill, who pitched 14 years in the majors.

 

> 1.09 Luis Urias – Not your typical young hitter, he has strike-zone judgment and puts the ball in play…he had 68 Walks and only 65 K’s at AA last season.

 

> 1.10 Anthony Alford – The highest-rated OF on my cheat sheet, this Toronto prospect has a bright future.

 

> 1.11 Austin Riley – Maybe the Braves shied away from signing Mike Moustakas because this kid is waiting in the wings?

 

> 1.12 Jonathan Villar – Fantasy experts love a player with skills coming off a disappointing season…only hit .241 last year but led the NL with 62 SB’s in 2016.

 

> 1.13  Issac Parades – There’s always one player taken in the 1st round who is a stranger to me…this is a 19 year-old infielder in the Tigers organization who hasn’t played above A ball yet.

 

> 1.14- Sixto Sanchez – Slots right in with Gore, Whitley & Quantrill as a potential ace…this Phillie phenom is 19.

 

> 1.15 Kyle Wright – This Braves RH makes it five SP’s in the first round.

 

Additional picks for the Dux roster…

 

> 2.12, Steven Matz – Was targeting Chatwood in this spot but he went at 2.08…Matz has talent, but not durability.

 

> 3.04, Colin Moran – Nunez was the only 3B on the squad, so getting a back-up was important…the Pirates wouldn’t have made the trade if they didn’t think he could do the job.

 

> 4.12, Vincent Velasquez – Trying to accumulate pitching depth…in 46 major-league starts, he has a 9.7 K rate.

 

> 5.4, Kurt Suzuki – Wanted Mitch Garver in this spot because he’s going to back-up Castro, but he surprisingly went off the board in Round 3…Suzuki was the best option at this point

 

> 6.12, Addison Reed – Didn’t really need another Closer, but this was low-hanging fruit at this point in the draft. Two good reasons for the pick…1) trading the best Closer in baseball (Jansen) in mid-season could bring help in other categories and 2) Reed signed a two-year with the Twins and a successful season gives the Dux a $6 Closer for 2019. Fernando Rodney would only scare me if I owned him.

 

> 7.4, Brandon Crawford – Needed a back-up for Gregorius and Crawford will play everyday due to his Gold Glove defense.

 

> 8.12, Kevin Pillar – Another one who’ll play because of his defense, he’s a back-up OF with a little speed…has averaged 18 SB’s over the last three years.

 

> 9.4, Jesus Sanchez – With all the back-up spots covered, it was time for another prospect…he’s an OF with the Rays who played A ball in 2017 at age 19 and produced a .305 BA with 15 HR’s & 82 RBI’s.

 

> 10.12, Leonys Martin – He broke my heart last year, but I’m all about forgiveness…had 15 HR’s & 24 SB’s for the Mariners in 2016.

 

> 11.4, Michel Baez – The Padres system is loaded and this Cuban RH had a 13-4 record last season with a 2.50 ERA and a 12.6 K rate.

 

> 12.12, Ben Zobrist – Probably doesn’t have much left in the tank, but multi-position eligibility is nice to have on your bench.

 

> 13.4, Chad Kuhl – Not asking for much, just another Pirates make-over from Ray Searage.

 

All in all, a fairly productive draft. The three extra SP’s give some flexibility for match-ups and streaming until Gohara gets back. Moran could be a sleeper, while the other back-ups seem solid. Seven minor-leaguers also give hope for the future.

 

If you consider yourself a baseball expert, consider that the following players were taken in this draft…Tetsuto Yamada, Yusei Kikuchi (Gesundheit), Wander Javier, Ian Anderson (why not draft Jethro Tull?), Triston Casas, Luis Alexander Basabe, Travis Swaggerty and Colton Welker (taken in the 2106 amateur draft out of Stoneman-Douglas HS in Parkland, Florida).

 

More information and the league history can be found at fantasyxperts.com

 

 

With the original “Rotisserie League Baseball” book having been published in 1984, some of us are coming up on our 35th year of auction drafts in the Spring of 2018. Almost everything has changed for the Fantasy player since those days of the analytic pioneers, but one trait has remained constant. My attendance at over 70 of these soirees indicates that while the people around the table have changed, the personalities haven’t.

 

As with “Dragnet”, the names have been changed to protect the innocent, but you should recognize some of these types from your own league.

 

> “The Hypester” – Not to be confused with a “hipster”, this guy automatically buys into all the hype he reads about minor league prospects, rookies, refugees and players from the Pacific Rim. If you told him confidentially to look for a Korean phenom named Sum Yung Guy, he’d probably bid on him. This guy drafted Candy Maldonado in the 80’s, Kevin Maas in the 90’s and Domonic Brown a few years ago. He also owns a Joe Charboneau baseball card.

 

> “The Limited” – Not to be confused with a train, this player is literally stuck at the station. He’s created some guidelines for the bidding process and doesn’t have the courage to go beyond his set values. Invariably, he’s the next-to-last bidder on numerous players and ends up leaving money on the table. In poker, this guy is defined as “tight passive” and can be bluffed out of the hand.

 

> “The Smart Ass” – This smirking fellow has figured out that the game is supposed to be entertainment and his goal is to bring out a player obscure enough to be unknown to half the league…and the other half doesn’t even want to bid. It doesn’t matter because he relishes the moment when people are scrambling through their paperwork to locate the bum. We once had an opposing player turn to his partner and say, “Keep bidding until I find the guy”. The Smart Ass is willing to have a nobody on his roster in order to bask in the glory of that remark.

 

> “We Are Family” – This team owner “becomes as one” with the players he drafts. As soon as a player is rostered on his squad, he no longer refers to them by their last name. During the season, he talks about “Von”, “Glenn” & “Rick” as if they’re all foster children who have been taken into his home. Their injuries impact him on an emotional level and approaching him about a trade is a waste of time.

 

> “The Pencil Breaker” – This is the well-organized, methodical man who has worked diligently on his plan. The issue at the table is that everyone’s strategy is usually blown-up in the first half-hour and the words “flexible” and “spontaneous” aren’t in his vocabulary. So, he allocated $18 for any one of three Shortstops and after they all go to other teams for over $20, he can be seen breaking pencils in frustration.

 

> “The Paper Pusher” – In the early days of this pastime before magazines & websites gave us player projections, this player was too lazy to do any real homework and would come to the table with a small piece of paper that had three or four names. His goal was to draft those players, no matter the cost. He could always be seen during the last three hours of the proceedings looking through the Baseball Register trying to find warm bodies to fill those eight $1 spots left on his roster. He never contended, but he would always ruin everyone else’s strategy. This is the twin brother of the gambler who hits 17 at the Blackjack table and makes sure the dealer doesn’t bust.

 

> “The Homer” – In a league based in Southern California, you can assume there will be a certain inflation factor for Dodger & Angel players due to the constant barrage of information. This fellow, however, is a fan of a particular team and has never been able to separate himself from that connection. His opponents know that they can always get an extra dollar of his budget spent on that player from the Red Sox or (insert the team of your choice). In addition, his level of interest in that team assures the fact that he’s reading about them in March and he becomes a mini-version of the “Hypester”.

 

> “The Enforcer” – Not to be confused with “Dirty Harry” Callahan, this is the person who feels a moral obligation to make sure no other team gets a bargain. If they sense a lull in the bidding for a decent player, they will jump in with a bid at the last moment even if that player isn’t a good fit on their team. This type of strategy will almost never succeed, but is guaranteed to always aggravate. The first cousin of the guy who plays every hand at the poker game.

 

> “The Math Minor” – Managing your money at the table is a necessity. Budgeting certain amounts for positions and/or categories gives you the best chance to win. This guy, however, essentially has no plan and just bids by the seat-of-his pants. An example would be having only one pitching spot left open and getting into a bidding war over a rotation ace when his team has no offense. This is the team that might spend 50% of their budget on pitching and then wonder why they ended up with so many back-up outfielders.

 

> “The Know-It-All” – This fellow may be a good player, but he is only tolerated by the other members of the league. They’re not concerned with his success, only with his attitude. He has no patience for anyone who doesn’t know that Josh Bell had only 16 appearances at OF and, therefore, only qualifies as a 1B. When opponents are slow to nominate player’s names late in the day, he shows his frustration, as if he has somewhere important to go. The truth is, he has nowhere to go because he doesn’t have any friends.

 

> “The Vacillator” – If you’ve played in the same league for a succession of years, you certainly understand that thinking you can contend every year is a fool’s game. If your keeper list is weak a season following a championship, then rebuilding might be part of your thought process. This player knows all that, but gets caught up in the exhilaration of the Draft and starts rostering players that don’t fit his strategy. For example, if you’re in a NL or AL only league, maybe he shouldn’t be taking players who will be free agents next year. This also applies to rebuilding teams who find themselves in the first division in May and change course (and make trades) because they’re fooled by stats that represent only 30% of the season. Usually, by the All-Star break, reality has bitten them in the posterior and they no longer have those young building blocks they acquired at the table.

 

We’ll call our league the “Keyser Soze” Invitational and there you have 11 examples of the kind of opponents you might encounter. If you’re the 12th team, there’s a name of you too…”The Winner”.

 

 

 

 

As Hedley Lamarr (or maybe Chase Headley) once said, “My mind is aglow with whirling, transient nodes of thought careening through a cosmic vapor of invention.” So, with Spring Training upon us, and with apologies to Jeff Foxworthy –

 

> If the sign in the supermarket said “Rotisserie Chicken” and it caused you to not spend that extra dollar on groceries, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your Pitchers have allowed so many home runs that you’ve installed a humidor in your house, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever gone joy-riding with Yasmany Tomas, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your elbow was fine but you decided to have Tommy John Surgery to see how long the rehab takes, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If life is confusing because your pill box starts with Sunday but line-up changes are due on Monday, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the fact that only Sandy Koufax could help your pitching stats causes you to always use 32-second intervals warming food in the microwave, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that the Nationals have a minor-league Pitcher named Joan Baez, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your neighbor brags about his 4×4 and you reply by saying you prefer 5×5, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your stat service keeps channeling Faye Dunaway by saying, “He’s a Pitcher, He’s a Hitter, Pitcher, Hitter, Pitcher and a Hitter”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re acquainted with “Lenny The Legend”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the whereabouts of Austin Adams, Lane Adams & Matt Adams, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you panicked in December because someone on ESPN reported that Trai Turner had a concussion, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Dee Gordon led the NL in SB the year before and the year after he was suspended, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Ahchoo was a man in tights and Shin-Soo Choo is a man in stirrups, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever purchased an illegal substance from Esteban Loaiza, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know it’s d’Arnaud and not D’Arnaud, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that the Brewers have a prospect who has a first name of “Brett” and a middle name of “Maverick”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are aware that Arismendy, Raul, Sandy & Victor are all named Alcantara, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Yonder Alonso is helping you with the launch angle of your 5-iron, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Cristhian Adames & Willy Adames, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re walking through the woods when someone yells “Snake” and you yell back “I prefer Auction”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the Dodgers skip a spot in the rotation and you think it should be called “Walker Buehler’s Day Off”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know not to touch Adrian Beltre’s head, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you told your fiancé that you’re willing to marry her but that you want an opt-out after two years, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If, like Miguel Sano, you arrived at Spring Training with a “generous carriage”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your religious commitment is limited to drafting Jesus Aguiler, Noah Syndergaard, Adam Eaton & John Moses, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone refers to a girl as a “Keeper” and you ask if she qualifies at more than one position, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Mookie Betts bowled a perfect 300 game during the off-season, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Triston McKenzie & McKenzie Mills each had 12 Wins in the minors last season, you just might a Fantasy player.

 

> If the team names “Okrent Fenokees”, “Sklar Gazers”, “Cary Nations” & “Pollet Burros” are familiar to you, you just might be a long-time Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve gone dirt-bike riding with Madison Bumgarner, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the best thing about the Super Bowl is that it’s the last Football game of the season, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone asked you for a scouting report on Reds Catching prospect Chris Okey and you opined that he was “OK”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Homer Bailey has the worst first name for a Pitcher, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Chad Green had an ERA under 2.00, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the whereabouts of Kyle Crick, Kyle Elfrink, Kyle Blanks, Kyle Gibson, Kyle Hendricks and Kyle Kendrick, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever used the word “Eh” in a conversation with Tim McLeod, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you watch a movie that stars Ben Kingsley and you’re motivated to check Trace Wood’s Long Gandhi website, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the Mayo Clinic is where Jonathan spends the off-season looking at minor-league video, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know Bruce Rondon & Hector Rondon have a combined weight of over 500 pounds, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think “Black Magic Woman” is only a song by the wrong Carlos Santana, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that a Barcalounger is a chair and a Barraclough is a set-up guy, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your podiatrist diagnoses you with a callous and it causes you to wonder if Jim has finished the top 100 prospect list yet, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve signed a petition to have Bill James’ countenance added to Mt. Rushmore, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that Randal Grichuk will love Canada, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the term “Pleskoff Prospect” is meaningful to you, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you realize that Wily Peralta’s name is not pronounced the same as Wile E. Coyote’s name, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you see graffiti that says “Jesus Is The Answer” and you wonder if the question is, “Who Is Matty & Felipe’s Brother?”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Schoop is pronounced “Scope”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you adopted the Bartolo Colon diet regimen during the holidays, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you feel that having a pastry with Tyler Danish makes you a prospect expert, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that Wilin, Welington, Dioner and Yasmani are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Rookie Davis still has rookie eligibility, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you ordered a Delmonico Steak for dinner just because you’re a White Sox fan, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Sean Doolittle’s nickname should be “Doctor”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are secure in the fact that Lord Zola is not a character created by J.R.R. Tolkien, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Brad Hand could be the next Rollie Fingers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you understand that Yadier is the slimmest & fastest Molina, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re more impressed with Jimmy Nelson & Raisel Iglesias than you are with Willie Nelson & Julio Iglesias, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If it is no surprise to you that Kris Davis hit as many Home Runs at his home park as Chris Davis hit all season, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Joe is “Mauer” and Brandon is “Maurer”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Kevin Quackenbush should pitch for the Long Island Ducks, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If none of your friends would even consider tuning in to “Mad Dog” Russo, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Hunter Dozier, Hunter Renfroe, Brian Dozier, Bryan Morris & Hunter Morris, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you drafted Justin Verlander just to keep Kate Upton happy, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re aware that on nickname weekend, the back of Kyle Seager’s uniform said “COREY’S BROTHER”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that there have been two major league players named Boog Powell, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Starlin, Alcides, Adeiny & Asdrubal are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If  your luck got better when you changed your name from Carlos to Yolmer, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know how to spell Benintendi, Foltynewicz, Tropeano, Scheppers, Tepesch, Pierzynski, Nieuwenhuis & Samardzija, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If a conversation with Jason Collette would be more interesting than one with Toni Collette, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone you know named their son Andrelton and you didn’t find it unusual, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the kids are watching “Kung Fu Panda” and you think the lead character should lose weight, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Bo Bichette is Dante’s son and was named after Bo Jackson, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you believe that the new “Rotoman” Superhero action movie will be in 3-D, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you went to a restaurant and ordered a Szczur Salad, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you wonder why the Mexican restaurants in Kansas City never served Moose Tacos, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that meeting Billy Beane would be more exciting than meeting Brad Pitt, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Ryan Wheeler, Tim Wheeler, Zelous Wheeler, Jason Wheeler & Zach Wheeler, you’re definitely a Fantasy player.

 

> If your annual literary schedule includes the publications written by Robert B. Parker, Lee Child, Jonathan Kellerman and Ron Shandler, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you wish Derek Jeter would become an owner in your league, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the song “Camptown Ladies” makes you think of Lucas Duda, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Jesse is Winker and Dan is Winkler, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your mind wanders back to the days of phonebooks and you realize Tony Zych would be the final listing, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the difference between Jarred Cosart, Kaleb Cowart and Zack Cozart, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your wife isn’t concerned about you visiting Asian websites because she knows you’re scouting baseball prospects, you are obviously a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re not sure Justin Upton is worth $106 Million, but you’re pretty sure he’s worth at least $23, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Yovani, Aroldis, Ubaldo, Jhoulys, Odrisamer & Anibal are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you see the movie “Platoon” and immediately start thinking about Nick Williams & Aaron Altherr, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the Rhys Hoskins was the only major leaguer with an OPS of over 1.000 against both RH & LH pitching, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you got an 80-game suspension for too many carbohydrates in your system , you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know more quotes from Dylan Bundy than from Al Bundy, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the total bill every time you shop at Costco is $260, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the Devo song “Whip It” comes on the radio and you think about walks, hits and innings pitched, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you sent Scott Boros a calculator so he can tell the difference between $200 Million and $110 Million, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If the names Leonys, Taijuan, Kolten, Rymer & Xander are familiar to you, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your only link to opera is that you once saw Alfredo Figaro pitch, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Steve Moyer has better velocity than Jamie Moyer, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think the movie “Ender’s Game” is a documentary about Inciarte getting an extension from the Braves, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Stolmy, Josmil, Mauricio, Yorvit & Koyie are all spelled correctly, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your Zen Master plays a guitar, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’re sure that Barbato is a Pitcher and not a Caribbean island, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If running out of 2B options caused you to Panik, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you absolutely hate it when Managers decide to give their Closers some work in non-save situations, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you drive all the way to Las Vegas in March to see Greg Ambrosius, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Ben is Lively but Ryan is Dull, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Brett Gardner could be related to Steve Gardner, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Brian Kenny is the smartest guy on MLB Network, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> On a related note, if Harold Reynolds drives you bonkers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think Perry is a better Capt. Hook than Christopher Walken or Dustin Hoffman, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Ryan Mountcastle is not a character from a British movie, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you understand that Marquez is named German but Max Kepler is German, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are perfectly clear on the fact that “DeSclafani” is not tonight’s special at that upscale Italian restaurant, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you plan on drafting both Taijuan Walker & Jameson Taillon so your squad has a “Taijuan Taillon Rotation”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you have zero interest in the members of the Rockies starting rotation, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you go to a seafood restaurant and wonder if Mike Trout, Tim Salmon, Kevin Bass, Mike Carp, Catfish Hunter and Bobby Sturgeon knew that there a major league player in the 1930’s named George Gill, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone you know names their son Rajai and you assume the kid will be fast, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Doug Dennis is funnier than most stand-up comics on HBO, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you wonder how a prospect with the name Carter Kieboom could only hit 9 Home Runs, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If a politician brings up the topic of inflation and you wonder why he isn’t also concerned with position scarcity, you just might be a keeper-league Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve never forgiven Barbara Hershey for shooting Roy Hobbs, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your interest in camping caused you to draft Austin Meadows,  Josh Fields & Kyle Freeland, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Brian Feldman has ever been your auctioneer, you just might be an expert-level Fantasy player.

 

> If you have only a passing interest in middle relievers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you were confused and tried to roster Bubba Starling Marte, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Joe Montana was a football player but also know that Steve Nebraska was a baseball player, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you suffer a personal injury and call Rick Wilton for a diagnoses, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that Tyler Flowers could be related to Ray Flowers, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think that the term “Elvis Has Left the Building” means the Rangers Shortstop hit a Home Run, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know that Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Dayan Viciedo & Didi Gregorious are not females, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you and your wife exchanged dollar figures but still ended up going to arbitration, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Jeff Erickson is your favorite radio personality, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever sent an e-mail to Brian Walton asking about the #30 prospect in the Cardinals organization, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you are aware that Ben Gamel is the younger Brother of Mat Gamel and you’ve owned them both, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you know the true identities of CarGo, LoMo, J-Up & V-Mart, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you’ve ever tried to buy something with “Patton Dollars”, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you offered your girlfriend a qualifying offer but she still opted for free agency, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If someone uses the term “Wise Guy” and you think of Gene McCaffrey instead of Joe Pesci, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If your grocery list includes Ketel Corn, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If Jeff Winick represented you in salary arbitration, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> If you think a “Sale Price” is getting Chris for less than $25, you just might be a Fantasy player.

 

> And, finally, if Draft Day is your favorite day of the year, you have become a true Fantasy player.

 

50+ years ago, if a baseball fan was asked who the best hitters were, the only significant resource would have been the sports section of the Sunday newspaper. Somewhere in the back pages, there was a long, slender list in very small type showing all current major league players. And those players were ranked by their BA (Batting Average) because that had historically been the benchmark for position players.

 

Looking back at 1966, we find that the top five BA’s belonged to Matty Alou (.342), Manny Mota (.332), Felipe Alou (.327), Rico Carty (.326) & Dick Allen (.317). Fine players all, but were they the five best hitters in baseball? Not when you consider that the two MVP winners (Roberto Clemente and Frank Robinson) finished 6th & 7th. Matty Alou, for example, had 2 HR’s & 27 RBI’s in 535 AB’s. Even OBP (On-Base Percentage) would have been a better gauge, as the top five were Ron Santo (.412), Joe Morgan (.410), Robinson (.410), Allen (.396) & Al Kaline (.392).

 

As modern baseball analytics have evolved, one of the most accepted statistics has become OPS (On-Base % + Slugging %). Not only does it prioritize getting on base, it also adds the concept of moving more runners around the bases. After all, Slugging Percentage is defined as Total Bases /At Bats. Old school fans might question the veracity of the stat but baseball history tells the tale. The five highest lifetime OPS numbers belong to Babe Ruth (1.16), Ted Williams (1.12), Lou Gehrig (1.08), Barry Bonds (1.05) & Jimmie Foxx (1.04). There are only two other hitters with a number over 1.00… Hank Greenberg and Rogers Hornsby.

 

With Spring Training around the corner, here’s one Duck’s opinion on the top (baker’s) dozen hitters for 2018 based on their projected OPS from a highly respected Fantasy website…

 

1) Mike Trout, Angels OF, 1.025 OPS – 20 years from now, people will be describing his career as “once in a generation”. His consistency and still youthful age (26) makes him the consensus #1 hitter in Fantasy drafts. His 2017 figure was the best in the game at 1.071

 

 

2) Joey Votto, Reds 1B, 1.009 OPS – Still gets criticized for his plate discipline and will probably lead all of baseball in Walks (100+). Like Ted Williams, he won’t expand the strike zone to satisfy writers and broadcasters. Even at 34, he shows no signs of slowing down as he led the NL last season at 1.032

 

3) Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees OF, .985 OPS – A healthy season fulfilled the expectations with 59 HR’s and a 1.007 OPS. Still in his 20’s, the Bronx Bombers will love him.

 

4) Bryce Harper, Nationals OF, .962 OPS – Was on his way to a spectacular season in ’17 when he got injured. In 111 games, he had 29 HR’s, 87 RBI’s and a 1.008 OPS. He’s 25 and will be a free agent next year.

 

5) J.D. Martinez, Red Sox OF, .958 OPS – Tough to go out on a limb for someone who has only played more than 123 games once, but his 1.066 number in ’17 shows the potential.

 

6) Freddie Freeman, Braves 1B, .955 OPS – His age 27 season in 2017 produced a career-high .989 OPS, so it appears that his performance has reached another level.

 

7) Charlie Blackmon, Rockies OF, .947 OPS – Finished at 1.000 last season and led the NL in Hits, Triples, Runs & Total Bases.

 

8) Paul Goldschmidt, D’Backs 1B, .944 OPS – Incredibly consistent performer in the batter’s box and won his 3rd Gold Glove in 2017. Oh, by the way, he also swiped a total of over 70 bases the last three seasons. New action movie…”Goldy vs. the Humidor”.

 

9) Nolan Arenado, Rockies 3B, .942 OPS – Yes, some of the stats are fueled by altitude, but he won’t turn 27 until after opening day and had a .886 OPS on the road last season.

 

10) Aaron Judge, Yankees OF, .927 OPS – Can he repeat the breakout season? Hit 33 of his 52 HR’s at Yankee Stadium and led the AL in both Strikeouts & Walks.

 

11) Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays 3B, .926 OPS – Even geniuses like Billy Beane sometimes make mistakes…33 HR’s in 113 Games

 

 

12) Kris Bryant, Cubs 3B, .918 OPS – Rookie of the Year in ’15, MVP in ’16 and some thought ’17 was a disappointment. His OPS the last three years? .858, .939 & .946

 

13) Jose Altuve, Astros 2B, .908 OPS – The AL MVP had his best season. He has four consecutive 200 Hit campaigns and doesn’t turn 28 until May.

 

Did your favorite player get left off the list? The next five are all over .885…Wilson Contreras, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Christian Yelich & Nelson Cruz.  Or maybe some youngsters take the next step? We’ll all be watching.

 

When it comes to baseball, there are casual fans, hometown fans, old-school fans, know-it-all fans, rabid fans and people like me. I’m a 365 day-a-year fan who enjoys all the nuances of the actual game as well as all the minutia of the hot stove season. A day doesn’t go bye when I don’t check the transactions or think about free agent signings or muse about the topic of my next blog. And, I’m not at all apologetic about my passion for the game because it has been a wonderful distraction in my life. As a wise man once said, “Life is more worthwhile when you can be passionate about something trivial.”

 

For me, being a member of The Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) is a delightful extension of my fandom. The brilliant people who write for the Society always make me think and open my eyes to the endless history of this great game. So, when they recently published their “SABR Defensive Index” (SDI) for 2017, it got me thinking about how far we’ve come in the last thirty years in regards to judging defensive excellence on the field. For many years, I was a critic of the annual Gold Glove awards because they never seemed to based on reality, only reputation. The final straw was in 1999, when Rafael Palmiero only played 34 games at 1B (and 128 at DH) but still won the AL Gold Glove. Of course, he won it in ’97 & ’98, so he must still be the best 1B in the league, right?

 

Since then, researchers have created defensive metrics that quantify the performance of major league players on the field, so we’re getting closer to the truth. Currently, the SDI ratings are incorporated into the Rawlings Gold Glove selection process and account for about 25% of the results when added to the votes from managers and coaches. So, let’s look at the SDI results and how they compare to the actual Gold Glove winners for 2017. The SDI numbers represent defensive runs saved relative to the league average at the position.

 

> American League

 

* C – Martin Maldonado – If you wonder how valuable a .221 hitter can be to a team, look no further.  The Angels back-stop won the Gold Glove and his 14.1 rating was almost double that of the nearest competitor.

 

* 1B – Here’s where perception and reality refuse to meet. The best DFI was the Indians Carlos Santana with 6.7. Eric Hosmer of the Royals won the Gold Glove with a negative rating and 11 other AL 1B finished ahead of him.

 

* 2B – Ian Kinsler of the Tigers had the best mark with 5.8 but the second place finisher won the Gold Glove…Brian Dozier of the Twins.

 

* 3B – Evan Longoria’s 6.5 number was the best and he captured the Gold Glove…Todd Frazier & Kyle Seager were close behind.

 

* SS – Andrelton Simmons of the Angels won his 3rd Gold Glove at age 27 with an amazing rating of 18.8. Elvis Andrus was a distant 2nd with 10.1.

 

* LF – Alex Gordon’s offensive woes didn’t impact his defense as he won his 5th Gold Glove with a 11.1 rating. Brett Gardner was close at 10.8.

 

* CF – In a league filled with quality CF’s, the Twins Byron Buxton stood out with an incredible 20.0 rating and the Gold Glove. Lorenzo Cain’s 10.1 was next best.

 

* RF – Mookie Betts of the Red Sox won his second consecutive Gold Glove by posting a number of  22.0. No other RF was over 9.

 

> National League

 

* C – Austin Hedges and Tucker Barnhart had almost identical ratings (10.7 & 10.4)…Barnhart came away with the award.

 

* 1B – Brandon Belt had the best results at 10.7 but Paul Goldschmidt was a close 2nd and won his 3rd Gold Glove.

 

* 2B – DJ LeMahieu nearly lapped the field with his number of 10.2 and the Gold Glove is in his trophy case. Joe Panik won the leather in ’16 but dropped to the bottom of the list in ’17.

 

* 3B – Nolan Arenado – Five seasons into his career and five Gold Gloves, this time with a rating of 11.0. David Freese was a close second at 9.5.

 

* SS – Addison Russell has been consistently excellent and topped the list with a 8.3 number, but he lost out on the award, which went to Brandon Crawford for the 3rd straight year.

 

* LF – Marcell Ozuna will take his skills and a Gold Glove to St. Louis for 2018. He had the best rating at 6.5.

 

* CF – Ender Inciarte gave more credence as to why Dave Stewart should not have been a GM by winning the Gold Glove again. This was a very close competition as Michael Taylor & Manny Margot were right on his heels.

 

* RF – Jason Heyward was the best at his position with a 12.8 rating…a $184 Million investment should bring something. Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers was next with 9.5.

 

> In case you’re curious, here’s a list of the defensive players with the worst ratings…in other words their defense was “offensive”.

 

* AL – Brian McCann C…Yonder Alonso 1B…Starlin Castro 2B…Nick Castellanos 3B…Tim Anderson SS…Kris Davis LF…Adam Jones CF…Jose Bautista RF

 

* NL – Francisco Cervelli C…Tommy Joseph 1B…Joe Panik 2B…Jake Lamb 3B (a repeat “winner”)…Jose Reyes SS…Matt Kemp LF…Denard Span CF…Domingo Santana RF

 

What about Pitchers, you ask? Well, Marcus Stromen had the best rating in the AL and won the Gold Glove while in NL, Zack Greinke won his 4th straight award despite finishing only 8th in the ratings…R.A. Dickey was #1.

 

Don’t forget to take your glove to the ballpark.

 

The real difficulty is explaining how much fun it is to be a baseball junkie. For the uninitiated, the game holds endless facts and stories about teams, seasons, games, players and outcomes. The history of the game is what makes it all come together. Who could know that a young Pitcher named Babe Ruth would eventually set a record for hitting Home Runs? Who could imagine that a skinny High School basketball player would turn out to be a Hall of Famer named Sandy Koufax…and did you know that he was born Sanford Braun?

 

You can never run out of stories when it comes to our national pastime. I was reminded of this vividly when a collection of minor league baseball cards recently came across my desk. One of the team sets featured the 1988 Las Vegas Stars, the AAA affiliate of the San Diego Padres. The team finished the Pacific Coast League season with a record of 74-66 but as with all teams, there are 25 stories beneath the surface. Let’s take a look behind the curtain at the 25 individuals in this beautiful, black-bordered card set.

 

> #1, Joe Bitker P – The workhorse of the rotation, he pitched 178 innings with a 3.58 ERA and a record of 8-10…he was 11-9 the previous season for the Stars. He pitched briefly in the majors in 1990 & ’91, appearing in only 15 games. His lifetime big league record was 1-0…undefeated!

 

> #2, Keith Comstock P – A veteran at age 32, he was the Closer and had 5 Wins & 17 Saves. His career included two seasons in Japan and stints with four big league clubs. The left-hander had a lifetime major-league record of 10-7.

 

> #3, Greg Harris P – One of the Padres top prospects, he was 9-5 at age 24 and made his big league debut that September. Pitched in eight seasons as a major-leaguer with a lifetime record of 45-64 and a 3.98 ERA.

 

> #4, Joel McKeon P – Was 2-5 for the Stars with a 5.96 ERA. He had pitched for the White Sox in 1986 & ’87 but never made it back to the majors.

 

> #5, Pete Roberts P – Started 13 games and had a record of 4-6. Pitched three more years at the high levels of the minors but never made a big league appearance.

 

> #6, Todd Simmons P – Had a true “vulture” campaign as he pitched 54 games in relief and complied a record of 12-5. Completed one more minor league season and was out of baseball at age 25.

 

> #7, Ed Vosberg P – A very useful swing-man, he started 11 games and pitched another 34 in relief. Finished with a record of 11-7 and posted 2 Saves. His baseball career spanned from 1983-2007 and he pitched in 10 big league seasons before retiring at age 45. The prototypical situational left-hander, he won a total of 10 games in the majors and was part of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins.

 

> #8, Kevin Towers P – A familiar name that was recently in the news as he passed away at age 56 just last week. 1988 was essentially his last season as a player but he later became a famous front office executive. After starting as a scout for the Padres in 1990, he eventually became their GM, serving in that capacity from 1995-2009. From 2011-2014, he was the GM of the Diamondbacks.

 

> #9, Joe Lynch P – Was 6-6 with 8 Saves out of the bullpen and had an impressive 3.27 ERA. Pitched two more seasons for the Stars and retired at age 27.

 

> #10, Shane Mack OF – Got 267 AB’s with the Padres in 1987 and got back up to the big club again in ’88. His real MLB success came during his stint with the Twins from 1990-1994 where he hit over .300 in four of the five seasons. Played in Japan in 1995 & ’96 before coming back to the majors for a few more years. He was a lifetime .299 hitter with a .821 OPS in nine big-league campaigns.

 

> #11, Thomas Howard OF – Played with the Stars in both ’88 & ’89 before making his big-league debut with the Padres in 1990. Ended up with over 2,600 big league AB’s over 11 seasons. Also played for the Indians, Reds, Astros, Dodgers & Cardinals.

 

> #12, Jerald Clark OF – Hit .301 in 408 AB’s for the Stars. Ended up playing parts of seven seasons in “The Show” with a lifetime BA of .257. His Brother Phil played for three teams in the 90’s and hit .276.

 

> #13, Randy Byers OF – A .267 hitter in 100 games for the Stars, he only had 26 major league AB’s and was out of baseball before turning 24.

 

> #14, Bip Roberts 2B – Hit .353 with 29 SB’s and was on his way to the majors. One of the quickest players in the NL during the early 90’s, he had 46 SB’s for the Padres in ’90 and 44 for the Reds in ’92. Leon (his real name) played 12 years with over 1,200 Hits and a .294 BA. Made over $17 Million during his big league career.

 

> #15, Brad Pounders 1B – A productive bat in ’88 with 14 HR’s & 74 RBI’s but it was his last professional season at age 24. His Son Brooks did make the major leagues and pitched for the Royals in 2016 and the Angels in ’17.

 

> #16, Rob Nelson 1B – The power hitter in the middle of the line-up for the Stars, he hit 23 HR’s with 77 RBI’s in 388 AB’s. Ended up with only 152 major league AB’s and hit .178.

 

> #17, Gary Green SS – Had over 300 AB’s and didn’t hit a HR. Eventually accumulated 180 AB’s in the big leagues and didn’t hit a homer there either. His Dad Fred pitched in the majors during the early 60’s and was a member of the 1960 World Series champion Pirates.

 

> #18, Joey Cora 2B – This diminutive infielder hit .296 for the Stars and only struck out 19 times in 460 AB’s. Spent 11 years in the majors and had over 1,000 Hits with a .277 lifetime BA. His Brother Alex played 14 seasons and is the new Manager of the Red Sox.

 

> #19, Mike Brumley SS – Hit .315 and swiped 41 bases for the Stars. A switch-hitter, he played parts of eight seasons in the majors before retiring in 1996. His Dad (also named Mike) was a Catcher for the Washington Senators from 1964-66.

 

> #20, Roberto Alomar, SS/2B – Even though he was only 20 years old, the talent level was obvious and he got called up to the Padres after only nine games in Las Vegas. His rookie season gave a glimpse of what was to come with a .709 OPS & 24 SB’s. One of the best fielding 2B in the history of the game (he won 10 Gold Gloves), he was inducted into Cooperstown in 2011. His Dad & Brother (both named Sandy) were also major leaguers.

 

> #21, Bruce Bochy C – At the other end of the spectrum from the young players, this was his last season as an active player after playing parts of nine years in the majors. The epitome of a back-up Catcher, his lifetime BA was .239. He managed in the minor leagues for the next four years and became the skipper of the Padres in 1995 and stayed for 12 years including a World Series appearance in 1998. In 2007, he took over the helm with the Giants and three world championships later, he is one of the most respected leaders in the game. After 22 seasons and almost 1,800 Wins, he may be on track to Cooperstown someday.

 

> #22, Sandy Alomar, Jr. C – A .297 BA with 16 HR’s put him on the radar at age 22. Became the starting Catcher for the Indians in 1990 and made six All-Star teams in his career.

 

> #23, Tom Brassil IF – This was his 7th minor league season and despite hitting .311, he called it quits at age 28.

 

> #24, Steve Smith Manager – A minor league infielder form 1976-82, he never made the majors. He managed in the minors for 12 years, half of them at the AAA level.

 

> #25, Sonny Siebert Coach – An outstanding major-league Pitcher in the 60’s & 70’s, he won 130 big league games with a lifetime ERA of 3.21. Won 16 games three times and made two AL All-Star teams.

 

Lots of baseball history from a minor-league team that played 30 years ago. One, and possibly two, Hall of Famers, multiple All-Stars and some baseball heritage of families that played the game. If you think this team is the exception to the rule, think about this…we could have chosen the 1988 Richmond Braves and talked about the cards of John Smoltz, David Justice, Lonnie Smith, Jeff Blauser & Leo Mazzone.

 

As always, the history of the game is what makes it all come together.

 

 

For baseball fans and especially for Fantasy players, prospects are a passion and a plight. This time of year, we scour lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, magazine annuals and numerous websites that claim to have that crystal ball. The reality is that each season’s top 100 list includes a logjam of bums who will never make an impact on your team or their MLB employer. Do the names Rick Ankiel, Paul Wilson, Brandon Wood, Joba Chamberlain & Jesus Montero sound familiar? They should because over the last 20 years, they’ve each been one of the top three prospects in baseball.

 

In our ongoing quest to find talent, we look at pedigree (in terms of draft position or contract), athleticism, roster opportunity, scouting reports and statistics. One of those statistics should be Major League Equivalents (MLE’s). Originally outlined in 1985 by Bill James, the concept is to evaluate minor league statistics and create a reasonable expectation of how they would correlate to major league performance. A number of analytic sites have formulas in place to determine these outcomes and while no one statistic is carved in granite, it’s another item for your prognostication toolbox.

 

Looking back at some of the surprising players from 2017, it’s interesting to see what their MLE’s looked like from 2016. It’s a reasonable guess that some of these guys weren’t highly valued in your Fantasy Draft last Spring, but they turned out to be the kind of bargains that help win leagues…

 

> Albert Almora, Cubs OF – Buried behind lots of more-hyped prospects, his ’16 MLE’s showed the possibility of a .270+ BA at the major league level. Of course, platooning helped, but a .298 BA and 8 HR’s in 299 AB’s was a positive contribution.

 

> Josh Bell, Pirates 1B – Experts were somewhat skeptical about his impact, but the ’16 MLE’s showed a .270 BA and double-digit HR’s. 26 HR’s and a .255 BA for the big club in ’17 shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise.

 

> Alex Bregman, Astros 3B – Success was expected after his debut in ’16 but check out these numbers…’16 MLE’s projected a .274 BA with 17 HR’s and the MLB ’17 performance was .284 with 19.

 

> Matt Chapman, A’s 3B – His ’16 MLE’s predicted a low BA but some significant power. In 290 AB’s for the Athletics, he hit .234 with 14 HR’s.

 

> Mitch Hanger, Mariners OF – The ’16 MLE’s showed a .270+ BA with 19 HR’s & 9 SB’s. Despite being limited to 369 MLB AB’s due to injury, his line in ’17 was .282, 16 & 5.

 

> Rhys Hoskins, Phillies 1B/OF – Almost unknown a year ago, he burst on the scene last August with record-setting power. Guess what? His ’16 MLE’s from AA equated to 34 HR’s.

 

> Manny Margot, Padres OF – At AAA in ’16, his MLE’s were a .258 BA with 21 SB’s. His rookie season in San Diego had real numbers of .261 & 19.

 

> Hunter Renfroe, Padres OF – Also at AAA in ’16, the equivalent was a .248 BA & 21 HR’s. His ’17 numbers with the parent club were .231 & 26.

 

> Bradley Zimmer, Indians OF – His ’16 MLE’s predicted a .229 BA with double digit HR’s and a bunch of steals. In 299 AB’s for Cleveland in ’17, he hit .241 with 8 HR’s & 18 SB’s.

 

Some of these guys might have been had at single-digit prices in an auction or late round picks in a snake? Of course, we’re not reviewing the opposite end of the spectrum, but MLE research can be another stat to consider. As we head toward the 2018 season, let’s look at some top prospects with solid MLE’s along with a few that might be flying under the radar. The number represents where they are on the current MLB.com top 100 prospect list.

 

> Miguel Andujar, Yankees 3B (#65) – Only 22, he’s a potential .300 hitter with power.

 

> Jake Bauers, Rays 1B/OF (#64) – Also 22, his BA needs work (.245) but double digit HR’s & SB’s are part of the profile.

 

> Bobby Bradley, Indians 1B (NA) – The #3 prospect for the Tribe, he 20 projected HR’s at AA and he’s only 21.

 

> Lewis Brinson, Marlins OF (#27) – Should play everyday in Miami and his MLE’s show a .284 BA with power & speed.

 

> Willie Calhoun, Rangers OF (#53) – Built like a fire-hydrant, he projected 24 HR’s at AAA. If he’s in the line-up at that ballpark, the ball could fly.

 

> Thairo Estrada, Yankees SS (NA) – Added to the 40-man roster in November, he hit well at age 21 in AA.

 

> Dustin Fowler, Athletics OF (NA) – #8 on their organizational list, The A’s are hoping he’ll be ready for Spring after a horrific leg injury. His ’17 MLE’s at AAA included a .273 BA with double digit HR’s & SB’s.

 

> Zach Granite, Twins OF (NA) – A .315 comp BA at AAA with SB potential.

 

> Danny Jansen, Blue Jays C (NA) – Hit an equivalent.295 in the low minors at age 22 and is the #15 prospect in the system…we’re always looking for Catchers with decent BA.

 

> Ryan McMahon, Rockies 1B (#41) – A spot might be open and his MLE’s are .340 BA with power.

 

> Jurickson Profar, Rangers IF (NA) – Once the top prospect in baseball, now forgotten at age 24. At AAA in ’17, he had a 9% walk rate and a 89% contact rate…maybe a fresh start somewhere?

 

> Luis Urias, Padres SS (#36) – If you love players who put the ball in play, here’s your guy…a .294 comp hitter with a 13% walk rate at AA…at age 20!

 

Hope you find a few sleepers for your squad.

 

 

 

 

 

No, not the 1965 movie where Steve McQueen loses that last poker hand to Edward G. Robinson after rolling around with both Ann-Margret and Tuesday Weld. This is the nickname for Reds 1B Joey Votto that should replace “Votto-matic”. The logic is the connection between the current star and the original “Kid”, Ted Williams.

 

In 1938, Williams honed his batting philosophy under the tutelage of Rogers Hornsby at the Spring camp for the Minneapolis Millers. The 19 year-old phenom soaked up everything “Raj” had to say, especially the idea to “get a good ball to hit”. That became Ted’s personal quest and he decided that a walk could be as a good as a hit and that getting on base helped your team in the long run. His SABRmetric approach at the plate also created the impression with both Pitchers and Umpires that if he didn’t swing at a pitch, it couldn’t be a strike. In his first two seasons in a Red Sox uniform, he would often be put in the position of defending his hitting to the members of the Boston press. There was even a profanity-laced tirade in the locker room toward one of the writers who criticized him taking a base-on-balls when there was a runner in scoring position. By 1941, when Ted hit .406, even the scribes came to realize that he was the best hitter in baseball and they moved on to find other topics of aggravation.

 

In the evolving debate between stats and scouting, Joey Votto seems to be a lightning rod at the center. A few years ago, Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman took the old school position when he said, “Votto will take a 3-0 pitch an inch off the outside, when he could do some damage. I believe in expanding the strike zone when you have guys on base”. The fact that Votto had only 73 RBI’s in 581 AB’s for 2013 and 80 RBI’s in 545 AB’s in 2015 drove people like Brennaman crazy. In 2013, Reds 2B Brandon Phillips had 103 RBI’s in 606 AB’s, but many of those were accumulated because Votto was getting on base in front of him. In 2015, Todd Frazier was the recipient with 89 RBI’s in 609 AB’s. So, the scout half of the debate will criticize Phillips (and his .310 OBP) and Frazier (.309 OBP) for not being more like Votto after criticizing Votto for not being more like Phillips & Frazier. The other thing Brennaman has in common with those Boston newspapermen from 70+ years ago is that he’s never stepped into a big league batter’s box and tried to hit a 95-mph fastball.

 

Fortunately for the Reds organization and their fans, Votto doesn’t care about the negative comments. With a contract that extends until 2023, he isn’t focused on personal stats, only on the team’s success. In 2017, the Reds won only 68 games, but Votto took his game to an even more elite level. In 559 AB’s, he hit .320 and led the league in both OBP (.454) & OPS (1.032). Oh, and he added 100 RBI’s.

 

From a stat guy’s perspective, Joey Votto might be the most under-rated player in baseball. His performance over the first ten years of his career is on a secure historical path. In terms of old-school stats, it looks really good. A lifetime BA of .313, OBP of .428 and a slugging percentage of .541 with an average of 25+ HR’s & 80+ RBI’s despite missing parts of two seasons with injuries. When you start to break down the SABRmetrics, it looks even better.

 

OPS (On-Base & Slugging) is a relatively new stat that is widely accepted in the baseball community as a benchmark for offensive excellence. Votto’s career number is .969, which is 15th best of all-time, ahead of Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Chipper Jones, Mel Ott, Ralph Kiner, Willie Mays & Hank Aaron. An even newer stat is OPS+, which actually adjusts for the offense produced in the league each year and the ballparks. With the baseline being 100, Votto’s career OPS+ is 158, which puts tied for 16th place all-time, ahead of Frank Thomas, Joe DiMaggio, Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols & Miguel Cabrera.

 

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a single number that presents the number of wins a player added to the team above a replacement level player. Since joining the Reds in 2007, Votto has accumulated a number of 54.8 at age 33. Four or five additional seasons at this level would put him ahead of Derek Jeter, Reggie Jackson, Johnny Bench and numerous other Hall-of-Famers on the all-time list. He’s already ahead of Reds Hall of Fame 1B Tony Perez.

 

“Win Shares” is a Bill James contribution that relates a player’s individual statistics to the number of wins he contributed to the team. Generally, 30 or more Win Shares indicates an MVP-caliber season. Votto’s average for his last seven full seasons is 31.7.

 

“Runs Created” is an additional category now being examined by analysts and Votto’s number of 155 in 2017 was better than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton & Jose Altuve.

 

Another fairly recent analytic is “Offensive Win %”. That gauges the percentages of games a team would win with nine of this player batting…assuming average pitching and defense. The two best in 2017 were Mike Trout (.817) and Joey Votto (.797). 129 Wins in a 162 season would probably get your squad into the post-season.

 

As for the “Old School” opinion versus the “Stat Guy” analysis, the debate will continue and it is always interesting. One school of thought from baseball writer Paul Daugherty is that if Votto batted second in the line-up, there would be no discussion because both sides would agree that he’s the best two-hole hitter in the game. However, as long as he’s batting third, the old school fan will say, “he’s not paid to walk”. Just for the record, Ted Williams hit third.

 

For those of you under a certain age, the answer is no, these aren’t two sleeper prospects for your 2018 Fantasy Baseball roster. In 1953, Clyde McPhatter was the lead singer of the Drifters when they recorded “Money Honey” (later covered by Elvis Presley). Not to be confused with the Lady Gaga song, it’s lyrics include…

 

Well, I learned my lesson and now I know–

 

The sun may shine and the wind may blow–

 

Women may come, and the women may go,

 

But before I say I love ’em so,

 

I want–money, honey!

 

Money, honey

 

Money, honey,

 

If you wanna get along with me.

 

The fledgling Motown Records was provided with important capital when Barrett Strong hit the charts in 1960 with “Money, That’s What I Want” (later covered by the Beatles).

 

The best things in life are free–

 

But you can keep ’em for the birds and bees,

Now give me money, (that’s what I want), that’s what I want.

 

As this off-season seems to be slow for free agent signings and there are even whispers of collusion, a look at the landscape tells you that clubs are wary of long-term deals. Five free agents have signed contracts that some may feel are slightly above market…Carlos Santana ($20 Million), Wade Davis ($17 Million), Tyler Chatwood ($13 Million), Zack Cozart ($13 Million) & Jay Bruce ($13 Million). The one thing in common, however, is that they are all 3-year deals. So, let’s give you an opportunity to once again be a General Manager. Based on some minimal research, it appears that there are about 20 current major league players who are already under contract to make at least $15 Million for the 2021 season. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to determine which of these players you would really want on your roster in 2021 at these prices. The figures represent the average salary of a long-term deal. The player’s age for that season is listed to help with your analysis. As you read the names and think, “This guy is on the downside of his career”, remember that three more full seasons need to be played before these salaries come due. And when you wonder why the 2018 market seems soft, this history may certainly be a factor.

 

 

> Zach Greinke, age 37, $34.4 Million

 

> David Price, age 35, $31 Million

 

> Max Scherzer, age 36, $30 Million

 

> Miguel Cabrera, age 38, $29.2 Million

 

> Stephen Strasburg, age 32, $25 Million

 

> Giancarlo Stanton, age 31, $25 Million

 

> Albert Pujols, age 41, $24 Million

 

> Robinson Cano, age 38, $24 Million

 

> Chris Davis, age 35, $23 Million

 

> Jason Heyward, age 31, $23 Million

 

> Joey Votto, age 37, $22.5 Million

 

> Justin Upton, age 33, $22.1 Million

 

> Johnny Cueto, age 35, $21.7 Million

 

> Buster Posey, age 34, $18.6 Million

 

> Aroldis Chapman, age 33, $17.2 Million

 

Also above the $15 Million threshold are Freddie Freeman, Dexter Fowler, Kenley Jansen & Elvis Andrus.

 

OK, GM…how many of these paupers are on your team in 2021? More than five? Of course, it’s an easier commitment when you don’t have to write the check. One of the other key considerations (if you’re still the GM three years from now) is how your budget will look in January of 2021. Why? Because the following players will be free agents at that time…

 

> Clayton Kershaw, 2020 salary of $35.5 Million

 

> Mike Trout, 2020 salary of $34.1 Million

 

> Yoenis Cespedes, 2020 salary of $29.5 Million

 

> Masahiro Tanaka, 2020 salary of $23 Million

 

> Justin Verlander, 2020 salary of $22 Million

 

> Justin Turner, 2020 salary of $20 Million

 

> Jon Lester, 2020 salary of $20 Million

 

> Jeff Samardzija, 2020 salary of $19.8 Million

 

Others available include Yadier Molina, Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Zimmerman, Jay Bruce, Matt Carpenter & Jason Kipnis. Would you rather have the money to spend on the free agent class?

 

Wow, this is almost as difficult as owning a Fantasy team. My dilemma in March is deciding how many contract years to extend Corey Seager.