For over 30 years, Fantasy players have bought the hype on prospects and overpaid for rookies on major league rosters. We just can’t help it, as the intrigue of finding the next Mike Trout counterbalances that pea-sized portion of our brain that holds the logic. Even Fantasy pundits use axioms such as, “pay for the future, not for the past” and we end up going hard after players with no future. The only efforts we really remember are the ones like drafting Tony Gwynn for $5 in 1984. All the failures drift out of our memory like so many losing weekends in Las Vegas.
Well, I’m here to tell you that it will get worse before it gets better. According to one analytic website, 2015 was the best season for rookies in the history of the game. Just look at the list! The top four vote-getters in the NL were Kris Bryant, Matt Duffy, Jung-ho Kang & Noah Syndergaard. In the AL, it was Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano & Roberto Osuna. Beyond those top choices, you also had Obubel Herrera, Randal Grichuk, Addison Russell, Joc Pederson, Billy Burns & Eddie Rosario. All of the “extra” guys had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 2.3 or better. Certainly an unprecedented level of talent.
So, how do we curtail our enthusiasm in 2016? Taking on Mr. Spock from Star Trek as a partner would be one solution, but maybe roster research could also help. As we sit here in late January with most of the available free agents in the fold, which rookies will really have the opportunity to get significant playing time this season? Using one of the many “Top 100” lists from the baseball section of the Internet, let’s try to gain some traction as Drafts get closer.
> Byron Buxton, Twins OF – Still only 22, he’s been stalled by injuries. Should be the CF and lead-off hitter on opening day, but don’t forget that he hit .209 in 129 MLB AB’s last season…with 6 BB’s & 44 K’s.
> Corey Seager, Dodgers SS – Slated to be the team’s everyday SS after a solid AAA campaign and impressive September performance. Let’s not forget, however, that a year ago the same things were being said about Joc Pederson and his Fantasy owners are currently jumping ship.
> Steven Matz, Mets P – The #4 starter in the rotation for ’16, this LH was very impressive after his late-season call-up.
Are you impressed with these three players? Well, you better be, because after going through the top 50 on the list, I can’t find anyone else who seems like a lock for a job on April 3rd. Pitchers like Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Tyler Glasnow & Jose Berrios will still be in the minors. Joey Gallo & Trea Turner don’t have places in the line-up. Yoan Moncada, Brendan Rogers & Dansby Swanson are too far away. Alex Reyes is suspended, J.P. Crawford is injured and small-market teams won’t start the clock on Orlando Arcia, Blake Snell & Bradley Zimmer. That pretty much covers the top 20, so 2016 might not have the firepower to match the previous season. Temper your expectations rather than losing your temper in April.